Al-Assad’s Fall Weakens Iran but Doesn’t End Its Capabilities in the Middle East

The ousting of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has dealt a significant blow to Iran’s network of influence in the Middle East. However, Israel, the United States, and Arab powers now face the risks of instability and extremism from the coalition of groups that toppled al-Assad.

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A major player in this downfall is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a Sunni Islamist armed group that was previously affiliated with al-Qaeda and is classified as a terrorist organization by the United States and the United Nations.

According to three diplomats and three analysts interviewed by Reuters, Western and Arab nations fear that the coalition led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham might seek to establish a hardline Islamist government or one less capable or willing to prevent the resurgence of extremist groups.

Abdulaziz Sager, head of the Gulf Research Center, stated, “There is significant fear in the region and beyond of a power vacuum that al-Assad’s sudden fall could create,” referencing the civil wars in Iraq following Saddam Hussein’s ouster in 2003 and in Libya after Muammar Gaddafi’s removal in 2011.

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A senior Western diplomat, speaking anonymously to Reuters, noted that with the myriad opposition groups, there is no clear plan for governing Syria, a nation divided into various sects and ethnic groups, each supported by regional backers.

Instability in Syria could also allow the resurgence of extremist groups like the Islamic State, which seized vast swathes of Syria and Iraq in 2014 before being defeated by 2019 through a U.S.-led coalition.

U.S. President Joe Biden welcomed al-Assad‘s fall on Sunday, stating that he must “be held accountable” for his authoritarian rule, while warning that his departure represents a “dangerous and uncertain” moment. American forces have carried out dozens of strikes in Syria to prevent the Islamic State from resurfacing.

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The speed of al-Assad‘s fall, occurring just two weeks after the opposition’s offensive began, surprised many in Washington. A senior U.S. official said Washington is now seeking ways to engage with all groups, not just Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.

For Iran, al-Assad’s loss, as a member of the Alawite Shiite minority, is a severe blow to its influence in a predominantly Sunni region. Iran has opened a direct line of communication with Syria’s new leadership to avoid a hostile trajectory.

For Moscow, another key al-Assad ally, this downfall also entails significant repercussions, especially concerning its military bases in Syria, which serve as a strategic foothold in the Middle East.

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