Political Events Awaiting Africa in 2025

11th January 2025

3 minutes read

Political Events Awaiting Africa in 2025

Africa is expected to witness a series of significant political events in 2025.

From geopolitical competition in the Sahel region to South Africa taking over the G20 presidency, and elections in Cameroon and Gabon, several major events are anticipated across the African continent in the coming year, as highlighted by the American magazine Foreign Policy.

Disputed Territories

In January, Ethiopia announced plans to build a port and a naval base in Somaliland in exchange for becoming the first country to recognize the sovereignty of the breakaway republic.

After facing resistance from Somalia, Ethiopia will now seek to “gain access to the sea under the sovereign authority of the Federal Republic of Somalia,” according to a joint statement signed in December.

Eritrea fears that Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed may attempt to seize Eritrean ports by force.

New Players

The conflict in the Middle East and Ukraine has largely overshadowed instability in the Sahel region. After the withdrawal of Western forces, military leaders from Mali to Niger realized that Russian forces alone could not address the deep-rooted issues that led to the emergence of “terrorists” in the region.

What happens in the Sahel will largely depend on the actions of the United States and China. At the same time, the potential detachment of Africa from the Trump administration could create opportunities for middle powers.

Cameroon Elections

President Paul Biya has ruled Cameroon since 1982, making him the longest-serving head of state in the world. At 91 years old, he is expected to seek a eighth term in the presidential elections scheduled for October.

Biya’s legitimacy is backed by the United States, due to Cameroon’s use of terrorism concerns to convince the world to continue selling weapons, vehicles, and aircraft to the country.

The major threat Biya faces is the risk of separatists seeking independence for the two marginalized English-speaking regions of the country. Clashes first erupted in 2017, displacing more than 765,000 people, many of whom fled to neighboring Nigeria.

African Diplomacy on the Global Stage

2025 is expected to witness a concerted effort to amplify Africa’s voice on the global stage as South Africa takes the presidency of the G20.

The African Union will elect a new chairperson for its Commission next month, with former Kenyan president Raila Odinga; Djibouti’s Foreign Minister Mahmoud Ali Yusuf; and former Madagascar Foreign Minister Richard Randriamandrato in the race.

Among the key issues concerning the African Union and South Africa are the broader African representation in global political affairs, including securing permanent seats for the continent in the UN Security Council.

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa plans to use the continent’s role as a source of vital minerals supplying the world’s energy as leverage to demand a more just financial system for Africa.

Ramaphosa is also expected to use the expanded BRICS group to push for a multipolar system with renewed focus on the Global South. Nigeria, Uganda, and Algeria received official invitations to join the group as “partner countries” last year.

Conflict in Sudan

Over 30 million people, more than half of them children, need assistance in Sudan after 20 months of war between Sudanese military leader General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and his former deputy Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, leader of the Rapid Support Forces, who was last week accused by the U.S. of genocide and sanctioned.

Gabon Elections

Gabon is set to hold transitional elections in August under the new constitution created by Brice Oligui Nguema after he ousted his cousin Ali Bongo in August 2023.

The constitution allows Nguema to participate in the elections as a civilian while preventing other members of the Bongo family from voting. It also abolishes the position of Prime Minister and concentrates power in the hands of the president.

Gabon is the last former French colony in West Africa to host French forces, and Washington is keen to avoid a larger Chinese military presence on the Atlantic coast.