Inauguration of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Heightens Tensions with Sudan and Egypt

Ethiopia has announced a major milestone in the operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), following the installation of advanced technology that enables full remote control of the power plant from the capital, Addis Ababa. The official inauguration of the dam is scheduled for Tuesday, September 9, despite the absence of a consensual agreement with downstream countries Egypt and Sudan.

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This move has further fueled regional tensions. Both Cairo and Khartoum argue that the dam poses a direct threat to their vital interests. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, however, maintains that the GERD poses no danger to either country, stressing that Ethiopia is only making limited use of the transboundary river’s resources and “has taken nothing that does not belong to it.”

In a recent televised interview, Abiy Ahmed explained that although the dam is storing 74 billion cubic meters of Nile water, the river continues to flow downstream. He underlined that “it is scientifically and practically impossible to halt the river’s flow, since the dam was never designed for such a purpose.”

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Egypt’s primary concern revolves around a possible reduction in its Nile water share, while Sudan fears for the dam’s safety, as it lies in an area considered seismically active.

During the second round of the Egypt-Sudan “2+2” mechanism, held in Cairo last Wednesday and chaired by both foreign and irrigation ministers, the two governments declared the Ethiopian project to be in violation of international law, with serious implications for downstream states. They denounced Addis Ababa’s unilateral decisions regarding the filling and operation of the dam, warning of associated risks such as structural safety concerns, uncontrolled water discharges, and inadequate drought management.

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Project director Kefle Horo told the official media outlet Gazeta Plus that Ethiopia had successfully installed cutting-edge technology allowing complete oversight from Addis Ababa. He described the GERD as a fully automated energy station equipped with modern management systems. He emphasized that the facility would be entirely operated by Ethiopian experts, who have been trained since the project’s inception to master all technical aspects. For him, the dam is not merely an energy project but “a symbol of national identity on which all Ethiopians have left their mark.”

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Egyptian specialists, however, warn that Ethiopia’s unilateral approach will harm Egypt and could eventually lead to confrontation. Abbas Sharaki, professor of geology and water resources at Cairo University, noted that the GERD has now reached its maximum capacity, holding 64 billion cubic meters at an elevation of 640 meters. He added that Egypt’s annual water quota would be met this year, as the dam has been structurally and hydraulically completed since September of last year.

Responding to Addis Ababa’s announcement, Egyptian Minister of Irrigation Hani Sweilam firmly rejected Ethiopia’s policy of imposing a fait accompli on Nile water issues. He denounced Ethiopia’s unilateral actions, arguing that the GERD remains an unlawful project lacking a binding legal agreement with Egypt and Sudan, despite persistent Ethiopian claims of its completion.

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