A New Study Outlines Possible Scenarios for Syria’s Future

9th December 2024

2 minutes read

A New Study Outlines Possible Scenarios for Syria’s Future

A new study by the Trends Research and Advisory Center reveals that the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, which occurred on December 8, 2024, marks a pivotal moment that could reshape Syria’s political landscape after more than 13 years of conflict.

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The study, titled “Post-Assad: Scenarios for the Evolution of the Syrian Landscape”, provides a detailed analysis of the developments between November 27 and December 8 of this year.

It highlights that the collapse of the Syrian regime was the result of a combination of internal and external factors. These included a major military offensive by armed opposition factions, which rapidly seized control of Aleppo, Hama, Homs, and finally Damascus. This was accompanied by defections within the Syrian army and a reduction in Russian and Iranian support for the regime.

The study emphasizes the long-standing structural weakness of the Syrian army, worsened by prolonged military and economic attrition, as well as increasing defections, particularly among field commanders. It also notes the erosion of the regime’s legitimacy due to domestic repression and economic collapse, as well as its overreliance on foreign allies, which hastened its downfall.

Looking ahead, the study warns of significant challenges, including rebuilding state institutions, achieving national reconciliation, and addressing the demands of various factions and social groups.

The study outlines four possible scenarios for Syria’s future post-Assad:

The Libyan Scenario

A prolonged internal conflict between armed opposition factions, with the risk of a new civil war.

The Partition Scenario

Persistent chaos and division of influence among factions, potentially leading to the emergence of quasi-states or independent entities based on ethnic and sectarian lines.

The South African Scenario

A comprehensive settlement achieved through national reconciliation, supported by regional and international actors, enabling a peaceful transition of power and state reconstruction.

The Preferred Scenario

The formation of a consensus government based on internal and external balances, with the Levant Liberation Front playing a pivotal role during the transitional phase.

In conclusion, the study stresses that Syria’s future will largely depend on the ability of Syrian, regional, and international stakeholders to manage the transitional phase wisely, focusing on avoiding a security and political vacuum and working towards building an inclusive civil state that meets the aspirations of all components of the Syrian population.