Alarming Resurgence of ISIS in Syria Following al-Assad’s Fall

10th June 2025

2 minutes read

Alarming Resurgence of ISIS in Syria Following al-Assad’s Fall

Intelligence and media reports indicate a resurgence of activity by the Islamic State (ISIS) in Syria, capitalizing on the security vacuum created by the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024, at the hands of a coalition between Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and Turkish-backed factions of the Syrian National Army.

This sudden shift in the Syrian power dynamic has provided ISIS with an opportunity to regroup and carry out more intensive attacks, at a time when the controlling factions are struggling with internal conflicts and face challenges asserting authority over the entire country.

According to The New York Times, ISIS carried out 294 operations in 2024, compared to 121 the previous year. UN estimates suggest the real number of attacks could exceed 400. This sharp increase coincides with heightened movement by ISIS cells in the Syrian desert and the northeast—areas adjacent to detention sites housing around 10,000 ISIS fighters and roughly 40,000 of their family members.

The prisons and detention camps managed by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are a growing source of concern, amid fears of mass escapes—especially as the SDF is increasingly preoccupied with repelling repeated Turkish incursions in the north, stretching its security capabilities thin. In this context, Colin Clarke, a researcher at the Soufan Center for Security Studies, warned: “A single major attack in Damascus or on Western targets could thrust ISIS back into the international spotlight.”

Experts also point out that ISIS is counting on the potential release of its fighters—or their ability to escape—as a way to rejoin the battlefield, while international counterterrorism coordination is faltering due to competing priorities among global actors.

U.S. forces remain stationed at several bases in northeastern and southern Syria but face significant challenges in balancing the fight against ISIS with maintaining local stability. In the absence of a clear international strategy for the post-Assad transition, observers fear that Syria could once again become fertile ground for extremist groups to regain momentum—foremost among them ISIS, which sees the current chaos as an ideal environment to reclaim its place in the conflict.