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As the prospect of negotiations on a Gaza truce draws closer, Netanyahu’s calculations grow more complicated, caught between public demands and the pressures of his political partners.

On Monday, Hamas informed Egyptian and Qatari mediators of its agreement to a new proposal delivered in Cairo, calling for a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza and the release of Israeli hostages in two stages.

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The Egyptian-Qatari proposal is said to be based on a framework presented last June by U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff.

Israel has not yet commented on Hamas’s acceptance, leaving attention focused on Netanyahu’s response.

For more than 22 months, mediation efforts have failed to achieve a permanent ceasefire in the war sparked by Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack on Israel.

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Since then, more than 62,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza, according to the Ministry of Health. Most of the population has been displaced multiple times, with estimates suggesting that over 90% of homes are damaged or destroyed. Healthcare, water, sanitation, and hygiene systems have collapsed.

The new proposal comes after Israel’s Security Cabinet approved a plan to take control of Gaza City in the north of the enclave, amid international warnings of famine spreading through the besieged and devastated territory.

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The proposal accepted by Hamas includes:

• A 60-day ceasefire;
• The release of half the Israeli hostages still held in Gaza — 20 believed alive out of 49 — in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners by Tel Aviv;
• The entry of sufficient humanitarian aid to meet the needs of the population.

According to diplomats quoted by the New York Times, the proposal is close to negotiation formulas Israel had accepted in the past, but it fails to meet Netanyahu’s central demand: the release of all hostages at once, coupled with security arrangements ensuring Israel’s control over Gaza and the establishment of a civilian administration unaffiliated with either Hamas or the Palestinian Authority.

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A senior Islamic Jihad official told AFP that the initiative provides for “a temporary 60-day ceasefire during which 10 Israeli hostages would be released alive, along with the handover of several bodies, with immediate negotiations toward a broader deal guaranteeing arrangements for the day after the war.”

Meanwhile, eyewitnesses in Gaza reported that Israeli tanks, backed by air and artillery strikes, suddenly advanced into Gaza City’s Sabra neighborhood, surrounding UN-run schools and a clinic sheltering hundreds of displaced people.

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Netanyahu’s stance and conditions

A week earlier, Netanyahu told Israel’s i24 channel that “the stage of partial hostage exchanges is behind us,” stressing that his government demands an “all-for-all” deal.

He also reiterated his rejection of any arrangement restoring the Palestinian Authority’s role in Gaza, instead favoring the creation of a new local administration under Israeli oversight.

According to his office, Netanyahu discussed with Defense Minister Yisrael Katz and military leaders on Monday “plans to complete operations in Gaza,” without directly addressing the Egyptian-Qatari proposal. But he emphasized that “Hamas is under tremendous pressure,” suggesting that time works in Israel’s favor.

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Netanyahu’s complex options

On paper, the proposed truce could offer a breathing space, but for Netanyahu it represents above all a domestic political challenge before being a negotiation issue with Hamas.

The Israeli opposition, along with hostage families, is urging the government to secure an agreement guaranteeing their release. At the same time, cabinet ministers such as National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich are pressing for the war to continue until Hamas is “crushed” and Israel asserts full control over Gaza.

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On Sunday evening, hundreds of thousands of Israelis gathered in Tel Aviv to demand that their government reach a deal with Hamas to end the war immediately and bring all hostages home.

Hostage families fear that another assault on Gaza City could endanger the captives’ lives.

Netanyahu has previously outlined his conditions: the simultaneous release of all hostages, Israeli security control over Gaza, and the establishment of a new administration excluding both Hamas and the Palestinian Authority.

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Possible scenarios for Netanyahu’s response

• Conditional acceptance: agreeing to the truce but with amendments granting him political leverage, such as tying it to continued military operations or new security arrangements in Gaza.
• Direct rejection: sticking to the “all-for-all” demand and deeming the offer insufficient. This would satisfy his hardline partners but draw heavy domestic and international criticism.
• Stalling: delaying a formal response and prolonging discussions to buy time for ongoing operations in Gaza, while keeping the door open for mediators.

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