Crisis in Ukraine: Scenario and date of a possible Russian invasion
The US authorities expect that the Russian army will launch a military operation against Ukraine next Wednesday morning, according to a German report.
The German magazine Der Spiegel said on Saturday that the US intelligence services issued the most urgent warning to the allies of the NATO allies of an imminent Russian attack on Ukraine.
Citing unnamed sources, the magazine continued, “Both US intelligence and the US military informed the German government and other NATO countries throughout Friday that there were concerns that the attack could occur as early as next Wednesday”.
The US intelligence agency based its findings on new information received from the Ukrainian border, according to the same source.
According to several diplomats and military officials quoted by Der Spiegel, the US provided several details about Russia’s secret movements, described specifically Russian invasion methods, as well as individual Russian units and the tasks they would have to carry out in the operation, and set February 16 as the likely date for the invasion.
“The information on which the U.S. warning was based was not initially known in Berlin, but it was said that the U.S. statements were highly detailed and supported by many sources”, the magazine said.
However, according to the current line, one cannot critically assess and predict whether an attack is imminent or not.. A point in time in mid-February has always been considered a reasonable time for an invasion.
But informed sources also believe the US may have deliberately disseminated the information in order to torpedo Russia’s attack plans, according to Der Spiegel.
Western diplomats and military told the same magazine on Friday evening that the American intelligence services apparently intercepted indications that the Russian leadership prepared the army to carry out the operation next Wednesday, adding that it cannot be determined with certainty that this is a final decision.
At the White House press conference late last night, President Joe Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, declined to comment on the reports.
“An attack could happen at any time, even before the end of the Winter Olympics”,” he said. “We are not saying that President Putin has made a final decision”.
Since the Ukrainian crisis began, the U.S. government has disseminated intelligence extraordinarily widely.
Politico magazine, quoting three sources in Washington, London and Kiev, said the US statement included a February 16 date for an invasion.
Washington has informed its allies of an invasion scenario in which Russian troops flow from the Belarus-Ukraine border, in conjunction with rocket and cyber-piracy attacks.
Apart from that, the rapid development of things can be seen since last Thursday evening as Foreign Minister Anthony Blinken warned of a possible attack before the end of the Olympic Games in China on February 20.
US President Joe Biden also called on all Americans to leave Ukraine immediately. According to US media, Biden met with his top security adviser in the White House Situation Room late Thursday night for an emergency meeting.
On Friday, things got hotter, and the United States informed allies individually of the new assessments early in the morning.
In the late afternoon, the President invited all heads of State and Government of the European Union together for a videoconference. European Union Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg were also invited.
