Despite Ongoing Negotiations… Israel Increases the Likelihood of Military Action Against Iran

28th May 2025

3 minutes read

Despite Ongoing Negotiations... Israel Increases the Likelihood of Military Action Against Iran

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, wary of a diplomatic solution that would limit Iran’s nuclear program, continues to push for military action against Tehran.

While President Donald Trump‘s administration attempts to negotiate a nuclear deal with Iran, Netanyahu is threatening to derail the talks by launching strikes on key Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities, according to officials familiar with the situation quoted by The New York Times.

The clash over how best to ensure Iran does not acquire a nuclear weapon led to a tense phone call between Trump and Netanyahu, as well as a series of meetings in recent days between senior U.S. and Israeli officials.

Trump said on Sunday that “something good” could emerge from his efforts to curb Iran’s nuclear program “within the next two days.”

Sources familiar with the negotiations told The New York Times that at best, a joint declaration of principles may be announced, while the details remain under discussion. This could pave the way for further negotiations, including whether Iran may continue enriching uranium at any level, how it will reduce its stockpile of bomb-grade fuel, or ship it abroad.

Trump’s Position

According to The New York Times, Israel had been planning an imminent strike on Iranian nuclear sites, but Trump canceled the move, preferring to continue talks with Tehran.

Nevertheless, Netanyahu has kept up pressure for military action, even without U.S. support.

The core of the tension between Netanyahu and Trump lies in their differing views on how to exploit Iran’s current vulnerability.

In October, Israel destroyed key elements of Iran’s strategic air defense system, which protected its nuclear facilities. This would allow Israeli aircraft to approach Iranian borders without fear of being targeted.

Israel has also weakened Hezbollah and Hamas, both armed and financed by Iran. By specifically targeting Hezbollah, Israel reduced concerns about the group’s ability to threaten Israeli jets en route to Iran or to launch retaliatory rocket attacks on Tel Aviv.

Netanyahu argues that Iran’s current weakness is temporary and that now is the time to strike. Trump, on the other hand, believes this weakness presents a chance to negotiate a deal to end uranium enrichment — backed by the threat of military action if talks fail.

Declaration of Principles

Israeli officials are concerned that Trump may now be overly eager to strike a deal of his own — one he could market as tougher than the 2015 accord reached by Barack Obama’s administration — even if it allows Iran to retain uranium enrichment facilities.

Last month, Netanyahu insisted that the only “good deal” would dismantle “the entire infrastructure” of Iran’s vast nuclear facilities — buried under the desert at Natanz, deep inside a mountain at Fordow, and across other sites nationwide.

However, the Trump administration now appears more open to a temporary declaration of shared principles with Iran, as this may help prevent an Israeli strike.

Experts say that to satisfy Israel and Iran hawks in Congress, any interim deal would almost certainly require Iran to either ship out or significantly dilute its near-weapons-grade nuclear fuel.

This would allow Trump to claim he had — at least temporarily — eliminated the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran.

Intelligence Estimates

One concern among U.S. officials is that Israel might decide to strike Iran without warning. American intelligence estimates suggest Israel could prepare for an attack in under seven hours — leaving little time to persuade Netanyahu to abort the mission.

However, that same U.S. military assessment raises doubts about the effectiveness of a unilateral Israeli strike without American support.

Some Israeli officials close to Netanyahu believe the U.S. would have no choice but to provide military assistance if Iran launches a counterattack.

Israeli officials have told their U.S. counterparts that Netanyahu could order a strike on Iran even if a diplomatic agreement is reached.

Following his meeting with Trump at the White House in April, Netanyahu instructed Israeli national security officials to continue preparing for an attack — including a limited operation that would not require U.S. assistance, according to several sources familiar with the matter.

Israel already has multiple plans on the shelf, ranging from surgical strikes to prolonged bombing campaigns, including on some facilities located in densely populated cities, according to The New York Times.

28th May 2025

3 minutes read