Has al-Joulani become moderate or is he simply acting with pragmatism and caution? A political science professor responds

Frédéric Encel, professor of political science and international relations at Paris Business School, believes that Syria’s new rulers hold extremely weak cards. Although they swiftly overthrew Assad’s regime, their internal resources remain very limited. He states that various communities — including Alawites, Christians, Druze, and especially Kurds — are closely watching how they will behave in the future.

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In an interview published by the Arab Center for Extremism Studies, he adds that the northeastern region, which is part of Kurdistan, remains completely outside the new regime’s control, and militarily, it is relatively weak.

Encel also stated: “I don’t believe that al-Joulani has become ‘moderate.’ There are no moderate Islamists. But I do believe he and his men will act with great pragmatism and extreme caution for several reasons: they understand they owe a lot — if not everything — to Turkey; they are aware of the risks of getting close to the Israeli border; and they control only a tiny portion of Syrian territory.”

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He also pointed out that President Erdoğan is nothing more than a deceiver, and that Turkish support played a decisive role in the rapid assault that ousted Assad — especially since Idlib, the rebel stronghold, lies on the Turkish border. He asserted that without Turkey’s military and economic collusion — or at least its leniency — the jihadists could never have achieved victory.

For years, Erdoğan has sought to return between two and three million Syrian refugees who fled to Turkey at the onset of the conflict. Turkey has used the refugee issue as a pretext to justify its intervention in northern Syria, which under international law constitutes formal occupation.

In post-Assad Syria, Erdoğan appears as the primary victor, acting as the godfather of the alliance that overthrew the regime.

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