Iraq: The political process headed towards the unknown and fears of a civil war
After Muqtada Al-Sadr, the leader of the Sadrist movement, retracted his call for the mobilization of millions of demonstrations, there are signs of a solution to the crisis that is strangling the political life in Iraq and threatening to ignite civil war at any moment, due to the mobilization and the counter-mobilization between the Sadrist movement and the forces of the coordination framework supported by Iran. This comes amid reports of contacts between leaders in the “movement” and “framework” to sit at the dialog table. Al-Sadr announced the preparation for “the march of two million peaceful people” from across the country towards Baghdad, next Saturday, speaking of the “last chance” to achieve the desired change in the entire existing regime.
Al-Sadr surprised everyone with his announcement, postponing this “march” to another notice, confirming in a statement: “If you (the coordinating framework) bet on civil war, I bet on civil peace, and Iraqi blood is precious, even more precious than anything,” he said, accusing the framework of betting on a “civil war” with the Hezbollah Brigades in Iraq, a component of the Coordination Framework forces loyal to Iran, threatening to go to the street “to foment sedition”. Iraq is witnessing a suffocating crisis as a result of the failure of political forces to form a new government since the October elections. The crisis has developed over the past two weeks with the announcement by the Sadrist movement of an open sit-in Baghdad until it achieves its demands for dissolving the parliament and holding early elections.
The Sadrist movement believes that the current government should prepare for the electoral process, while the coordinating framework seeks to change the government and amend the law before starting the electoral process. The forces of the coordinating framework lost the elections under the law – which they now reject – and the Sadrist movement won.
Observers have confirmed that Al-Sadr’s retreat from the MF may be the reason for an initiative to push Iraq to overcome the current political impasse. They confirmed that there is a desire on the part of the Sadrist movement to sit at the dialog table to avoid the deterioration of the situation more than the reality now, pointing out that Al-Sadr sent a message to all parties of his desire to alleviate the crisis and not to involve the Iraqi people in political crises and seek calm.
In the same context, Hadi Al-Ameri, President of the Al-Fatah Alliance – the Coordination Framework – conducted a tour to call for dialog between all political forces in Iraq, amidst information indicating an expected meeting between Al-Ameri and Muqtada Al-Sadr. Observers believe that the communication between Al-Ameri and Muqtada Al-Sadr may be the beginning of the calming needed by the political process in Iraq.
Al-Mawred Center for Studies and Media head Najm Al-Qassab said: Al-Kadhimi has opened his eyes to partners in the political process and even to neighboring countries. This sends a reassuring message to the political forces in order to reach an understanding and choose a future government. Al-Qassab added that Sadr does not want to engage with others, especially with regard to the coordination framework. The Iraqi Prime Minister’s office confirmed that the Sadr City Council will be formed by the Ministries of Defense and Interior.
