Israel tracks Iran through three main fronts — amid fears of a surprise factor
Within Israel’s security establishment, plans are being shaped behind the scenes, prepared for any sudden shift on the regional stage.
Following talks with U.S. President Donald Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a small and sensitive meeting with senior security officials.
During the meeting, Netanyahu presented the understandings reached in Washington regarding Israel’s continued freedom of action on all fronts: Iran, Lebanon, Gaza, Syria, Yemen, and the West Bank, according to Yediot Aharonot.
Front scenarios
The newspaper noted that preparations are underway within the security establishment for a scenario in which the Israeli army could be required to operate on each of these fronts — some sequentially, others at the same time.
It considered that developments unfolding in Iran — especially the protests — are currently “the main factor influencing decision-making in Israel.”
At the same time, Israeli officials remain cautious about the consequences of the unrest in Iran.
Despite the expansion of protests across the country, “assessments in Israel indicate that the current wave is still unable, on its own, to cause the collapse of the regime.”
Senior officials point out that toppling a regime in a country like Iran requires multiple factors to converge, and that the situation has not yet reached that stage.
Nevertheless, the changing reality forces Israel to remain prepared for any unexpected developments or escalation scenarios.
Today, Iranian army chief Amir Hatami stated that Tehran views the comments made by the U.S. president and Netanyahu about the ongoing protests as a “threat,” and that it will not tolerate their continuation without a response.
Trump had recently threatened military intervention in Iran if protesters were killed, while the Israeli prime minister expressed support for them.
Israel monitors Iran through three tracks
According to Yediot Aharonot, Israel’s military intelligence is focusing on Iran through three main tracks:
- Close surveillance.
- Building an accurate intelligence picture to avoid missing any sudden or dramatic developments, as happened previously with the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s rule in Syria.
- Continuing to gather intelligence on high-value targets — a process that began after the end of the “Rising Lion” operation (the 12-day war in 2025) — in preparation for a future campaign, and providing early warning of any sudden, large-scale launch of ballistic missiles.
Israeli officials stress that, just as lessons were learned from the June 2025 war, “Tehran has also realized that the first strike may be decisive in determining the outcome of any military campaign. Therefore, Israel is not only monitoring Iran’s intentions, but above all its actions.”
Risk of miscalculation
At the same time, the newspaper says concerns are increasing within Israel’s security establishment over the danger of miscalculation.
Each side fears the other may be planning a surprise attack, heightening the risk of a pre-emptive strike based on false assumptions.
In recent months, Israel has sent messages to Iran through multiple channels saying it does not intend to launch any attack — including during the latest protests.
However, Iranian officials have repeatedly insisted they do not believe these messages and view them as misleading.
A dual process
Alongside intelligence activity, the Israeli Air Force is completing a dual-track reinforcement effort which, according to the newspaper, includes:
- developing offensive plans against enemy formations and drones;
• strengthening Israel’s air defense system at all levels.
The newspaper added that this effort is based on lessons from previous confrontations and incorporates new capabilities, including those relying on laser-based systems.
