Macron Plans to Strengthen Ties with Morocco by Opening a Consulate in Laayoune

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According to the “Institute for Geopolitical Perspectives” website, French President Emmanuel Macron is expected to announce, during his upcoming visit to Rabat at the end of this month, the opening of a European French consulate in Laayoune, the largest city in the Moroccan Sahara. This move would signify a new phase in relations with the Kingdom, highlighting France’s support for Morocco’s autonomy proposal for the Sahara under Moroccan sovereignty, as the only solution to end the conflict created by Algeria and the separatist Polisario Front.

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The report suggests Macron may announce this step, which would represent a significant turning point in international recognition of the Moroccan Sahara, during a speech before the Moroccan Parliament, scheduled for Monday, October 28. This report is based on information from a source within the Elysee Palace.

According to the same source, the official opening of the European French consulate will take place on November 6, just days after Macron’s visit to Morocco. This date coincides with the anniversary of the Green March, an event of considerable symbolic importance for Morocco.

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The French decision, according to the Elysee source, would represent a new move for Paris on the Sahara issue and would have a positive impact on other European Union countries, which might follow Paris’s lead by opening their own diplomatic missions in the Moroccan Sahara.

Macron’s visit, both in timing and content, will mark a decisive turning point for the question of Moroccan Sahara and will have a substantial impact on Franco-Moroccan relations. It is expected to include a series of economic agreements strengthening the partnership between the two countries, with political and commercial implications extending beyond bilateral relations to the European sphere, where Paris plays a major role and is expected to lead significant efforts within the European Union to garner the maximum possible support for Morocco’s sovereignty over its southern territories.

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The visit will also send several deep diplomatic and political messages, according to Abdullah Boussouf,a humanities researcher,  indicates that that “the Sahara conflict is nearing its end, due to Morocco’s approach based on equality and sovereignty,” while “in contrast, the Algerian regime continues to struggle amid internal and regional crises that reflect its increasing weakness, especially after French recognition, which has unsettled its stability.” He added, “while Morocco welcomes the French president with diplomatic honors, Algeria is left with reactionary measures and media hysteria.”

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Algeria had threatened to take painful measures in response to French support for Morocco’s autonomy proposal for the Sahara under Moroccan sovereignty. However, analysts argue that the Algerian regime lacks the capacity to sanction Paris and has lost any room for maneuver to wield threats or leverage. They note that Algeria’s attempts at coercion have failed with Spain, which maintains an unshakeable sovereign stance on the Moroccan Sahara, despite its heightened reliance on Algerian gas.

These analysts indicate that Algeria risks harming its relations with the European Union if it adopts a hostile stance towards Paris.

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Morocco’s Sahara has become a focal point of international interest, owing to its resources and strategic geographic location, enhanced by large-scale projects launched by the King of Morocco in the southern regions, aimed at transforming this area into an investment hub.

French and Western companies, such as the French group Engie in partnership with Morocco’s Nareva, are already involved in large-scale projects in the Sahara, including the construction of a seawater desalination plant in Dakhla.

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The rapprochement between Paris and Rabat has sparked renewed interest among French companies in Morocco. Etienne Girod, President of the French Council of Investors in Africa, stated, “For the past two years, we avoided being too conspicuous. It was not in our interest to openly display our nationality.”

A French entrepreneur, who wished to remain anonymous, noted that “large Moroccan companies have once again knocked on our doors to establish partnerships in Morocco.” In recent years, “we sensed a tense atmosphere.” Jean-Charles Damblin, Director General of the French Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Morocco, confirmed that “in terms of public contracts, things were sometimes a bit more complicated.”

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He assured, however, that there had not been a significant slowdown in economic relations despite diplomatic tensions in recent years, with trade reaching a record level of $14 billion last year. The war in Ukraine has also led to an increase in French imports of agricultural products.

France remains the top foreign investor in Morocco, with nearly all CAC 40 companies having subsidiaries in the Kingdom, which is home to around one thousand French companies, especially in the automotive and aerospace sectors.

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Similarly, Morocco is the top African investor in France, with a steady increase in Moroccan direct investments from 372 million euros in 2015 to 1.8 billion euros in 2022.

This diplomatic rapprochement follows a period of tension between the two countries, stemming from France’s attempt to maintain a balanced stance on the Sahara issue vis-à-vis Algeria. It has been prepared by ministerial visits in recent months, in preparation for the state visit that President Macron will undertake soon, after several postponements in recent years.