Panic and displacement.. How Is Northern Syria Preparing for Turkey’s Threat of Ground Invasion?

Kurdish forces and foreign parties are trying to determine the seriousness of Ankara’s threats of a ground invasion following weeks of deadly Turkish airstrikes in northern Syria, and after a terrorist bombing in central Istanbul on 13 November, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan repeatedly warned of a new ground incursion to push Kurdish groups away from the Turkish-Syrian border.

Turkish air raids

The Associated Press, a U.S. news agency, confirmed that on November 20, Ankara launched a wave of airstrikes that killed dozens, including civilians, Kurdish fighters and Syrian government soldiers, and by cutting electricity, fuel and aid. Human Rights Watch has warned that the strikes are escalating the humanitarian crisis, and in the latest development, Sergei Vershchinin, Russia’s deputy foreign minister, traveled to Turkey this week for talks about the Syrian situation.

Turkey has launched three major military incursions since 2016, seizing large swaths of territory because it views Kurdish forces along its border with Syria as a threat, the US agency continued. Erdogan has begun building housing there in an attempt to relocate many of the 3.6 million Syrian refugees living in Turkey. The plan could historically weaken Kurdish-majority areas by resettling non-Kurdish Syrian refugees there, as well as addressing growing anti-refugee sentiment in Turkey and increasing Erdogan’s popularity before elections next year. Erdogan also boasted about his plans to build a 30-kilometer (19-mile) security corridor across current Kurdish-held territory.

Syrian exodus

According to the US agency, Kurdish organizations are putting pressure on the United States and Russia, both of which have military bases in northern Syria, to prevent Turkey from activating its threats once again. The Kurds are worried that the West will remain silent this time in order to calm Ankara in return for Sweden and Finland agreeing to join NATO. The Autonomous Administration of Deputy Co-President for Northern and Eastern Syria, Badran Jia Kurd, claimed that Turkey would be encouraged to conduct a ground operation through the silence of the international community regarding its brutality.

Kurdish organizations warn that an escalation by Turkey could jeopardize efforts to end the extremist group after they fought alongside a U.S.-led coalition against it and are now responsible for guarding thousands of captured ISIS fighters and their families. As a result of airstrikes, officials of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the United States have confirmed in recent weeks that they have halted or scaled back their joint patrols against ISIS. However, the patrols have since resumed.

Any future ground offensive is likely to be supported by tens of thousands of elements of the so-called Syrian National Army (SNA), a coalition of extremist groups backed by Turkey, which has accused the LNA of atrocities against the Kurds in previous incursions, including the 2018 assault on the city of Afrin, and the displacement of tens of thousands of their homes. These crimes were not limited to Kurds but also extended to Syrians, as mass displacement began in northern Syria before facing Turkish shelling and ground incursions and repeated crimes against humanity committed by extremist militias backed by Turkey against the Syrian people, SANA said.