Plans for a Ground Incursion in Southern Gaza: A Climate Conducive to an Aggressive Approach

24th March 2025

4 minutes read

Plans for a Ground Incursion in Southern Gaza: A Climate Conducive to an Aggressive Approach

After the collapse of the ceasefire, political and military leaders are considering plans for a new ground campaign that may involve a military occupation of Gaza for several months.

According to The Washington Post, Israel’s new tactics in Gaza are likely to include a full occupation of the entire strip for several months, direct military control over humanitarian aid, and targeting more of Hamas‘s civilian leadership.

The newspaper cited current and former Israeli officials, as well as other informed sources, who stated that the new tactics also involve evacuating women, children, and verified non-combatants into “humanitarian bubbles” while imposing a siege on those who remain. This approach could be considered a more intense version of the tactic used last year in northern Gaza.

Israeli officials say they are still waiting for the outcome of ceasefire talks and that no decisions have been made regarding an escalation of the current offensive, which has so far been mostly limited to aerial bombardment.

However, if the most extreme tactics are implemented, it would mark a significant escalation of the war and a major shift for the Israeli military, whose previous leaders had been reluctant to get deeply entangled in Gaza.

According to informed sources, a full invasion and occupation of the strip would require five military divisions, which could exhaust Israeli forces. Reservists have increasingly expressed doubts about engaging in an open-ended war. However, some officials argue that a full-scale invasion now would achieve Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s stated goal of eliminating Hamas.

Amir Avivi, former deputy commander of the Gaza military division, stated that last year’s military campaign was constrained by disagreements between political and military leaders over tactics and strategy, as well as concerns from the former U.S. administration under President Joe Biden about civilian casualties among Palestinians.

He added, “Now there is new leadership in the Israeli military, support from the United States, sufficient ammunition, and we have completed our main missions in the north, allowing us to focus on Gaza.” He continued, “The plans are decisive… There will be a full-scale assault, and they will not stop until Hamas is completely eliminated.”

Israeli officials say they remain willing to negotiate with Hamas before launching any large-scale invasion. Despite airstrikes early Tuesday and limited ground attacks, Israel denies violating the ceasefire agreement.

An Israeli official stated that on the 16th day of the truce, Israeli leaders presented their conditions for entering the second phase of the agreement, but Hamas rejected them. Hamas also later turned down an offer from Trump‘s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, to extend the ceasefire for 40 days in exchange for the release of eleven living hostages, offering instead to release only a single American-Israeli hostage.

The official added that Israel decided to resume the war under a clause in the agreement that allowed a return to hostilities if negotiations collapsed. According to this official, Witkoff’s proposal “is still on the table. But we have returned to negotiating through different means.”

Israel claims to have destroyed nearly all of Hamas’s 24 battalions, leaving only a few thousand fighters in Gaza. However, completely eliminating the group would require full control of the territory, a move that some military officers and analysts warn carries significant risks.

Sascha-Dominik Dov Bachmann, a war expert at the University of Canberra, stated, “We believe the Israelis will fail… This will undermine Israel’s moral and ethical standing.”

Supporters of a more prolonged and intense operation in Gaza argue that last year’s campaign only resulted in Hamas emerging from its tunnels in formal military attire. They believe that the current political conditions are now favorable for increasing military pressure and taking control of the territory if necessary.

Last year, the Biden administration refused to send a shipment of 2,000-pound bombs to Israel unless it allowed more humanitarian aid into Gaza and made greater efforts to prevent civilian casualties. However, Trump approved the sale of these bombs, and officials said Israel consulted with the U.S. administration before cutting off all aid to Gaza in March.

At the same time, Israel’s military leadership has become more hardline, with the appointment of Israel Katz as Minister of Defense and Eyal Zamir as Chief of Staff, replacing Yoav Gallant and Herzi Halevi, who had at times clashed with Netanyahu over control of humanitarian aid to Gaza and targeting Hamas’s civilian leadership.

Last week, Israel appeared to be adopting a new approach, launching airstrikes that Katz compared to “opening the gates of hell.” Yossi Kuperwasser, a former Israeli military intelligence official and head of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, stated, “The opposition within the military to a more aggressive approach has now diminished with Zamir and Katz in charge… They are more willing to take a harder line.”

He added, “The government was committed to removing Hamas from power… but the security establishment was not fully aligned with that idea, preferring to focus on military assets rather than civilian targets. However, once Hamas is removed from Gaza, the Israeli military will have no choice but to govern the territory.”