The African Sahel: The deadliest hotspot of violence on the continent for the fourth consecutive year

The Africa Center for Strategic Studies, in a report titled “Armed Islamist Groups in Africa Sustain High Levels of Lethality”, stated that the Sahel region remains the deadliest area on the continent for the fourth year in a row.

The report indicates that estimates suggest over 10,000 people were killed in the Sahel due to violence last year, accounting for 55% of all conflict-related deaths across Africa.

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It also notes that the Sahel has the highest rate of violence against civilians — a key measure of direct targeting by extremist armed groups. The region accounts for 67% (1,840) of civilian deaths on the continent, followed by the Lake Chad Basin, which recorded 24% (670) of such deaths.

Three regions alone accounted for 97% of reported deaths linked to armed groups in Africa: the Sahel (55%), Somalia (24%), and the Lake Chad Basin (19%). Mozambique and North Africa also witnessed increased violent activity and deaths after steady declines in previous years; however, these two regions together make up just 2% of total conflict-related fatalities.

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Regarding the most active armed groups, the report mentions that 75% of violent incidents and deaths attributed to extremist groups in the Sahel in 2024 were linked to the coalition known as Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), especially the Macina Liberation Front and Ansar al-Islam. Additionally, the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (also known as the Islamic State’s Sahel Province) was responsible for around 15% of violent events and fatalities in the Sahel.

The report highlights that the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara remains most active in Niger, where it is responsible for 76% of all acts of violence against civilians. Since 2019, Burkina Faso has become the epicenter of jihadist violence in the Sahel, accounting for 61% of the deaths caused by Islamist groups in the region (6,389 fatalities) in 2024. This compares to 2,443 deaths reported in Mali, or 23%, underlining the rapid expansion of the insurgency from Mali into Burkina Faso.

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Best estimates suggest that over four million people have been displaced from Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. In Burkina Faso alone, around three million citizens — approximately 10% of the population — have been forcibly displaced.

The report notes that violence by armed groups differs from the ever-growing activity of organized criminal gangs (commonly referred to as “bandits”) operating in northwestern Nigeria. These criminal groups were responsible for an estimated 1,380 violent incidents and 3,980 deaths in 2024 — roughly equivalent to the 1,392 violent incidents and 3,627 deaths linked to extremist groups in Nigeria during the same period.

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Additionally, the report confirms a decline in extremist-related violence in North Africa, with only 10 incidents and 17 deaths reported in 2024.

The Africa Center for Strategic Studies is an academic institution within the U.S. Department of Defense, established and funded by Congress to study security issues related to Africa. It serves as a platform for bilateral and multilateral research, dialogue, training, and idea exchange.

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