The fall of Al-Assad Sparks Political Debate in Iran

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The ousting of Bashar al-Assad‘s regime in Syria has sent shockwaves through Iran, prompting reformists to accuse Tehran’s government of a “failure to understand the region” and a poor analysis of the Syrian situation. All indications suggest that Iran has suffered a significant setback with the sudden loss of the Syrian arena, despite statements from some officials claiming that the event will not affect Iranian policies in the region or its proxies.

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Statements by Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, and some Revolutionary Guard leaders about the role of Israeli, American, and Turkish intelligence in the fall of the Syrian regime, as well as claims that Iranian influence remains unaffected, no longer seem convincing.

Iran had been the primary supporter of the Syrian regime, alongside Russia, throughout the civil war that began in 2011 when Bashar al-Assad’s regime sought to suppress popular movements calling for freedom. Throughout the conflict, Iran mobilized substantial resources, including sending armed militias it trained and organized to Syria to fight against opposition forces.

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Reformists in Iran opposed the use of national resources to support militias and other means in Syria, especially amid Iran’s economic struggles.

The fall of the Baath regime, which ruled Syria for 61 years, has reignited reformists’ criticisms of the Iranian government.

In a Telegram post on December 9, reformist politician Mahmoud Sadeghi stated that Iranian intelligence services had warned him against criticizing the Iranian regime regarding developments in Syria.

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In his message addressed to Khamenei, he wrote: “The Ministry of Intelligence contacted me and other political activists to warn us against linking the deposed Syrian regime to Iran.”

Despite this, Sadeghi addressed the Iranian government in a post on the X platform, saying: “Learn from what happened to the al-Assad family.”

Reformist politician Abbas Abdi also accused Tehran’s government of flawed analysis of the Syrian issue in an article titled “Cognitive Failure” published in the Iranian newspaper Etemad. He noted that Iranian policymakers suffered a significant informational and analytical failure regarding Syria before their military defeat.

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He stated that those who could not foresee such a large-scale defeat in Syria lack the ability to conduct sound analyses. He asked: “Why should others accept their irrational analyses and empty promises? They claimed victory ten minutes before al-Assad fled.”

Abdi further stressed that the failure to correctly assess regional realities has undermined Iranian propaganda and strategic policies over time. He added: “The al-Assad issue may now be over, but our current problem lies in this severe weakness in intelligence and analysis in the official perspective on Syria. This weakness is more critical than economic, military, or political shortcomings.”

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On December 8, Syrian factions seized control of Damascus, the capital, as well as other cities before it, with regime forces withdrawing from public institutions and streets. This marked the end of 61 years of Baath Party rule and 53 years of al-Assad family dominance.