Trump’s Outline to Resolve the Ukraine Crisis: Pressures and Guarantees

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The elected U.S. president understands that foreign policy disasters can wreck his approval ratings. Yet, he is betting on his ability to end a conflict that began and escalated under his predecessor Joe Biden. Could Donald Trump then be Ukraine’s best choice?

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According to Responsible Statecraft, Trump has valid reasons to prove skeptics wrong regarding his capacity to end the war. “Mediating a successful peace would bolster his legacy and embarrass his political opponents — and Trump relishes humiliating his critics. This leaves room for optimism alongside concerns,” writes the site.

Last September, Trump told Newsweek: “I am the only one who can stop the war.”

The American site suggests that Trump might not only be able to halt the war but also offer Ukraine the best possible deal under realistic terms.

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Concrete Promises?

Some argue that Trump’s promises about Ukraine are hollow because he has not outlined a feasible peace deal. However, the elected president insists he cannot disclose the details of his plan, preferring to negotiate with Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky behind closed doors.

Outlines of a Deal

Despite Trump‘s reticence, there are clues about the kind of agreement he might propose — one that both Putin and Zelensky might find acceptable.

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This fall, J.D. Vance, Trump’s vice president-elect, suggested a potential compromise: turning the current battle lines into a demilitarized zone (heavily fortified) to prevent future Russian military operations.

While maintaining its sovereign independence, Kyiv would receive guarantees that Ukraine would not join NATO. Meanwhile, Russia would retain control over the eastern and southern territories it currently holds.

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A Realistic Agreement?

According to the American site, there are reasons to believe Ukrainians might accept such a deal. While American commentators criticize Vance’s plan as too similar to Putin’s, Kyiv appears less dismissive.

Zelensky recently stated that everything must be done to ensure the war ends next year through diplomatic means. A Gallup poll found that a majority of Ukrainians now favor negotiating a quick settlement, even if it entails territorial concessions.

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Putin’s Motivations

On the Russian side, Putin might also consider a compromise. Although Moscow currently has the upper hand on the battlefield, its military gains have come at a staggering cost.

Pressures and Guarantees

Responsible Statecraft highlights Trump’s ability to exert strategic pressure on both parties to bring them to the negotiating table.

In a Fox News interview last July, Trump said: “I would tell Zelensky: no more [military aid]. You must strike a deal. And to Putin: if you don’t strike a deal, we will give Zelensky much more.”

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Such an approach, albeit risky, would mark a departure from Biden’s unconditional support for Ukraine — a policy that has failed to convert American aid into diplomatic leverage.

Long-term Security Challenges

The key issue remains post-war security guarantees for Ukraine. Immediate NATO membership is off the table, but Trump’s transition team has discussed freezing Ukraine’s NATO bid for 20 years, allowing both Zelensky and Putin to save face.

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Trump might also promote Ukraine’s accession to the European Union, a solution Moscow could find less objectionable. Early peace talks revealed that Russian negotiators were open to Ukraine joining the EU, a significant shift given their prior opposition to Kyiv’s alignment with the bloc.