Ukraine War: 5 Possible Scenarios for the Final Chapter

8th August 2025

3 minutes read

Ukraine War: 5 Possible Scenarios for the Final Chapter

After weeks of speculation, the date and location of the meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin have been set.

In a post on his Truth Social account, Trump announced he would meet with Vladimir Putin next Friday in Alaska, after earlier outlining the terms of a potential peace agreement to end the war in Ukraine, which could include “the exchange of some territories.”

This meeting is not just two presidents sitting face-to-face; it is a clash of two visions for war and peace in Ukraine, at a pivotal moment where personal ambition intersects with strategic calculations.

Trump, betting that his force of personality could break through six months of Russian “rigidity,” sees the summit as an opportunity to secure a deal to end the fighting.

Putin, meanwhile, arrives emboldened by battlefield gains and a steady-moving summer offensive, aiming to make the autumn negotiation season a stage for imposing terms, not trading concessions. In the background, an unspoken struggle plays out over who will write the last line of this war: diplomacy or force.

How might the war in Ukraine end?

CNN has outlined five possible scenarios for ending the conflict that began in February 2022 and has yet to produce a peace deal between Moscow and Kyiv.

Unconditional ceasefire
Under this scenario, Putin would agree to an unconditional ceasefire in Ukraine. However, CNN considers it unlikely that the Russian president would accept a deal that leaves the current frontlines unchanged.

The U.S., Europe, and Ukraine had already pushed for such a truce in May under threat of sanctions, but Russia rejected it. Trump abandoned the sanctions approach, favoring low-level talks in Istanbul that yielded no results. A 30-day ceasefire earlier this year targeting energy infrastructure brought only limited commitment and modest success.

The Kremlin is currently converting its battlefield gains into strategic advantages and sees no reason to halt progress at its peak. Even the threat of secondary sanctions on China and India — both resistant to U.S. pressure — is unlikely to change Moscow’s military calculations, with Russian offensives expected to continue until at least October.

Pragmatism and further talks
Negotiations could lead only to an agreement to meet again later, cementing Russian gains as winter approaches and effectively freezing the battle lines.

By October, Putin could have taken control of Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka, and eastern Kupiansk, giving him a strong position to wait out the winter and reorganize his forces, before resuming fighting in 2026 or using diplomacy to make the gains permanent.

He could also raise the possibility of elections in Ukraine — postponed due to the war — a brief talking point for Trump, to question Zelensky’s legitimacy or push for a more pro-Russian candidate.

Ukrainian resilience
In this scenario, U.S. and European military aid enables Ukraine to limit concessions on the front lines in the coming months, pushing Putin toward negotiations.

CNN warns of the risk of Pokrovsk falling and other eastern strongholds coming under threat but also foresees a slowdown in Russian advances, as in previous periods. Sanctions and inflation could also start weighing on Moscow.

European powers are already preparing to deploy a “reassurance force” in Ukraine as part of security guarantees. These tens of thousands of NATO troops could be stationed around Kyiv and other major cities, providing logistical and intelligence support and deterring Russia from altering the current lines.

Disaster for Ukraine and NATO
According to CNN, Putin could exploit cracks in Western unity after a summit with Trump that improves U.S.-Russia relations but leaves Ukraine to fend for itself.

Europe might try its best to support Kyiv but would fail to shift the balance without American backing. Small Russian gains in the east could snowball into a slow defeat for Ukrainian forces in the open terrain between the Donbas and central cities like Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia, as well as the capital.

In this scenario, Ukraine’s defenses could collapse, and its military manpower crisis could become a political disaster if Zelensky called for broader mobilization. NATO’s inability to craft a unified response would raise fears of Ukraine’s disappearance as a sovereign state.

Sanctions taking effect
CNN also envisions a scenario where Western sanctions finally bear fruit, undermining Moscow’s partnership with Beijing. This could deplete Russia’s sovereign wealth fund reserves and reduce revenues, curbing Moscow’s ability to finance the war.