Using the Economy as a Tool of Infiltration… Al-Qaeda Expands in West Africa

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French and African experts have revealed unprecedented movements by the group known as “Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin” (JNIM), affiliated with Al-Qaeda, in western Mali, amid a noticeable surge in attacks and strategic advances.

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A recent field study published by the Timbuktu Institute in Senegal indicates that the Kayes region has become a concerning hub for the group’s activity, raising fears of potential violence spreading into Mauritania and Senegal.

Warnings are not limited to military developments alone, but also highlight attempts to economically and politically isolate the Malian capital, Bamako, reshaping the threat landscape across West Africa and paving the way for further infiltration into Mali’s neighboring countries.

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According to the report, the number of attacks launched by the group in Kayes has increased sevenfold between 2021 and 2024, primarily targeting Malian security forces through ambushes and explosive devices—such as the attack in Melgué on February 8, which killed three soldiers and wounded three others.

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The report’s authors warn that the group is not relying solely on military operations, but is carrying out a strategic plan to sever Bamako from its key supply route to Senegal by gradually gaining control of the road connecting the two capitals.

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Aymeric de La Fosse, a French researcher specializing in Sahel affairs at the Institute for International and Strategic Relations (IRIS), said that the group is now using the economy as a tool to infiltrate neighboring countries, through networks smuggling livestock and timber, and that some traders in Senegal and Mauritania are being pressured to become involved indirectly.

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He added, “What we’re witnessing today is **a network-based expansion—not just territorial—**where the group integrates into cross-border economic activities, giving it a foothold without the need to occupy physical land.”

The report confirms that the group has not yet established any permanent bases in Mauritanian or Senegalese territory but benefits from the resale of livestock stolen from Mali and from controlling strategic forest areas, enabling it to expand economically, and then militarily.

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Meanwhile, Clément Deschamps, a French economic expert at the Center for Security Studies (CESDIP), believes the group may eventually try to exploit the vulnerability of local communities in the two neighboring countries—particularly unemployed or socially marginalized youth—to expand its recruitment.

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Deschamps notes: “Terrorist groups in the Sahel have realized the value of exploiting social and economic divisions, creating a false sense of legitimacy by distributing zakat and imposing religious taxes.”

The report stresses that the terrorist threat in the Sahel is no longer confined to central Mali or the borders with Niger and Burkina Faso, but is taking on a more dynamic, networked form, threatening the stability of West Africa as a whole.

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