West Africa Could Soon Witness the Emergence of a Jihadist State… What Are the Factors Behind It?

A recent report published by the Arab Center for the Study of Extremism has highlighted the Sahel region in Africa, located between the Sahara Desert and the tropical savanna to the south, as a critical base for groups seeking to establish jihadist states.

According to the report, these groups operate in parts of Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, and Chad, aiming to create a jihadist caliphate in the Sahel.

• Armed groups deliberately kidnap Europeans in the African Sahel: What are their motives?

• Rising Terrorist Activities in the African Sahel… “Global Report”

A jihadist state is an entity governed by Islamic Sharia law and led by a single leader, or caliph, who holds both political and religious authority.

Organizations such as ISIS and Al-Qaeda are committed to establishing these states, rejecting democratic governance entirely.

Their influence and operational model are expanding, radicalizing local populations, escalating sectarian conflicts, and worsening the hardships of already unstable regions.

• Rise in Al-Qaeda activities in the African Sahel… What factors led to this?

• Mauritania Warns: The “African Sahel” Region among the World’s Most Severe Crisis Hotspots

The report identifies several key factors that could contribute to the emergence of a jihadist state in the Sahel region of West Africa, including rapid population growth, governance failures, endemic poverty, porous borders, arms trafficking, and the presence of dense forests that offer safe havens for jihadists. Additionally, the recent wave of military coups in the region has further hindered efforts by elected governments to combat terrorism.

The report outlines three possible scenarios for the region’s future.

• The Growing Jihadist Violence in the Sahel

• Russia’s plans succeed in paving the way for the dissolution of the Sahel Group

The first scenario suggests that the current military dictatorships will attempt to cling to power. The longer they remain in control, the more complex the security situation will become. By prioritizing the protection of a small military elite, they risk deepening political marginalization and grievances, which often fuel jihadist recruitment.

Secondly, in 2022, the UN Secretary-General warned that “if nothing is done, the effects of terrorism, violent extremism, and organized crime will be felt far beyond the Sahel and the African continent.” In other words, the region could become the global headquarters of a jihadist state.

• Mauritania fears the deterioration of Sahel Countries’ ties and the strengthening of terrorists’ grip 

• A Change in ISIS and al-Qaeda Strategies in the Africain Sahel

Finally, a more positive future is possible. The Sahel is rich in renewable energy resources and has the potential to become one of the wealthiest regions in the world, thanks to its abundant human, cultural, and natural resources.