What are the most expected scenarios with the continuation of the ceasefire in Sudan?
The Sudanese conflict has entered its second week of sustained fighting between Hemeti’s Rapid Support Forces and al-Burhan’s army, until the two sides reached a three-day temporary truce by the US.
with a U.S.-brokered ceasefire agreement between the military and RSF to vary the commitment of the military and RSF to the agreement on the ground; “Since the outbreak of the fighting, they have announced more than one ceasefire, but it has been breached.”
Ceasefire in Sudan
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced that the two sides in the conflict agreed to a three-day cease-fire starting Tuesday. In an official statement, Blinken confirmed, “Following extensive negotiations over the past 48 hours, the Sudan Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces agreed to implement a nationwide cease-fire beginning at midnight on April 24, lasting for 72 hours,” and the two sides announced agreement to a truce.
At the same time, the United Nations announced the retention of a number of its staff in Sudan, led by the Secretary-General’s Special Envoy, Volker Perthes.
Nationals, embassy staff and NGOs have been evacuated to Port Sudan, in eastern Sudan, for travel.”
“Many Western and Arab capitals have opened safe pathways for the removal of foreign nationals, with both sides guaranteed to guarantee, and if the three-day pause in fighting continues, it could create an opportunity to access vital and much-needed resources such as food and medical supplies for those in need.
The Scenarios in Sudan
Ramy Zohdy, an African researcher, said that the most anticipated scenarios with the continuation of the fighting for 10 days are continuous and no truce was successful in its entirety at 100%. There is always a breach of the truce, and between the clear and unclear violations, and the truce is almost still limited, which is a relatively acceptable truce.
Ramy Zohdy added that the mediation efforts will only succeed in upholding Sudan’s interests among the disputants.
He explained that the expected scenarios, the first of which is the worst scenario, which is the prolongation of the crisis and consequently the exhaustion of the efforts of the Sudanese people who are exhausted in continuous crises and long-term crises with no solution and no peace will lead to more crises.
As for the other scenario, he said, “It is a victory of one side in the crisis over the other, and it is difficult to determine who is the victor at the moment, and the two forces are similar in military forces, in popular support, in numbers and in materiel.”
“The third scenario is the emergence of other forces that represent a popular solution for civil society and political parties, and the end of the matter with a new, binding and achievable agreement,” he said.
