What Awaits Lebanon if Washington’s Deadline for Hezbollah’s Disarmament Expires?
Signs of rising tension between Israel and Lebanon have increased as the American deadline for resolving the issue of Hezbollah’s weapons approaches.
Earlier, Israeli media reported that the U.S. administration had set December 31 as the final deadline for the Lebanese government to dismantle Hezbollah’s military arsenal.
This comes as Israel warns that Hezbollah is rebuilding its capabilities, hinting at the possibility of a large-scale military operation as the moment nears for President Donald Trump to make a decision.
However, the newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth reports that Israel is effectively delaying any major move while awaiting approval from the person considered to have the final say, President Donald Trump, who does not want an escalation to undermine the regional peace he promotes.
The same newspaper notes that the United States has asked Israel to give Lebanon more time to complete the disarmament process south of the Litani River.
Washington informed Beirut that if action is not taken now, it will no longer be able to prevent Israel from taking unilateral measures.
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun stated last Friday, before a United Nations Security Council delegation, that his country “does not want war” with Israel, following the launch of direct talks between the two sides. He emphasized that there will be “no turning back” from the decision to restrict weapons to the army alone.
Amid fears that Israel may expand its operations in Lebanon one year after the ceasefire with Hezbollah, a Lebanese civilian and an Israeli civilian joined the monitoring committee last week, marking the first direct encounter of this kind in decades.
Aoun stressed that “the Lebanese Army will fully carry out its mission” and called on the international community to support it, stating that limiting weapons to the army “is a fundamental objective”. He reaffirmed Lebanon’s determination to implement this decision, even if it requires time, and urged all parties to cooperate.
Israeli assessments
Israeli evaluations suggest that the Lebanese government wishes to disarm Hezbollah but lacks the capacity to do so, given the threat of internal confrontation, including the risk of renewed civil war if disarmament is imposed by force.
Senior Israeli officials say they see Hezbollah beginning to rebuild its capabilities on multiple fronts. They also point to what they describe as a renewed flow of Iranian funds to the movement, according to the newspaper.
Meanwhile, Lebanese officials informed the Americans that they had succeeded in disarming nearly 80% of the area south of the Litani.
But Israel “does not believe Lebanon will meet the U.S. deadline by the end of the year,” according to Yedioth Ahronoth.
Escalation on the table for Trump and Netanyahu
Israel has agreed to open civilian dialogue with Lebanon, and another meeting is expected next week. However, tensions continue to rise.
The issue is expected to be discussed during the meeting between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Trump in Florida at the end of the month, where it will become clear whether Israel has obtained the American green light to take a firmer stance in Lebanon.
Syria is also expected to be a central topic in the Netanyahu-Trump talks, as the U.S. administration seeks progress toward a security agreement with Syrian President Ahmed Al-Shar’a, amid stalled negotiations over Israel’s demand for disarmament in southern Syria.
Israel is seeking guarantees to maintain a humanitarian corridor for the Druze community in the province of Sweida, while Syria opposes any move it sees as an infringement on its sovereignty.
