One Year After October 7: What Has Changed in Israel?

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The majority of the public in Israel remains in shock from the October 7, 2023, attack, waiting for accountability for this failure.

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The Hamas attack on settlements and towns in southern Israel is considered the biggest failure in intelligence, military, and political spheres since the founding of Israel.

While the wider public may view the war and the destruction in Gaza as punishment for the Hamas attack on dozens of Israeli towns and military bases around Gaza, this punishment comes with a heavy price that Israel will bear for many years to come.

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For the first time in its history, Israel finds itself accused before the International Court of Justice of committing genocide against Palestinians, alongside an advisory opinion from the same court on the illegal occupation of Palestinian territories.

Also, for the first time, Israel faces the impending issuance of arrest warrants from the International Criminal Court against its top political and military officials for crimes against humanity in Palestinian territories.

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Furthermore, Israel is increasingly seen in the Western world as a state committing crimes against Palestinians, as expressed in protests across Western universities, including in the U.S.

Many Israeli officials have acknowledged that Israel’s propaganda machine failed to criminalize the Palestinians, with the majority of people around the world now standing by the Palestinians.

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This shift was reflected in the United Nations General Assembly votes during the war:

• On October 27, 2023, a resolution calling for an immediate and permanent ceasefire was adopted, with 121 countries siding with the Palestinians and 14 siding with Israel, while 44 abstained and 14 were absent.
• On December 12, 2023, the General Assembly voted in favor of an immediate ceasefire, with 153 countries siding with the Palestinians, 10 with Israel, and 23 abstentions.

The global rejection of Israeli practices was prominently expressed in worldwide protests, with nearly 2,090 protests per month against Israel, compared to 65 in support.

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According to available data, 3,975 protests against Israel were recorded in October, 3,116 in November, 1,773 in December, 1,505 in January, 1,505 in February, 1,773 in March, 1,974 in April, 3,536 in May, 1,374 in June, 1,730 in July, and 732 until August 9.

Change in Israelis’ View of the Army

Initially, Israelis suppressed their frustration over the intelligence, military, and political failures in preventing the October 7 attack. However, as the months of war dragged on, dissatisfaction began to surface.

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The Israeli government set clear war objectives: to crush Hamas, eliminate its military capabilities, and bring back Israeli hostages from Gaza. Yet, one year into the war, military and political officials admit that the army has failed to achieve these goals.

The Israeli army has acknowledged that it is impossible to eradicate Hamas because it represents an ideology, as Israeli army spokesman Daniel Hagari stated.

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According to a survey by the National Security Studies Center at Tel Aviv University, 69% of Israelis rated the performance of Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi positively in October. This figure dropped to 52% in May and to 46% in September.

As for the army, it was viewed favorably by 89.5% of Israelis in October, but this percentage fell to 88% in May and to 76% in September. Regarding the police, 67% of Israelis had a positive view of them in November, but that fell to 40% in May and then to 32% in August.

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Concerning Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his approval rating was 28% in October, slightly down to 27% in May, before rising to 30% in September.

In October, 88% of Israelis believed the army was succeeding in its war against Gaza, compared to 4% who disagreed. This figure dropped to 61% in May before rising slightly to 66% in September.

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Growing Internal Rift in Israel

The internal Israeli divide has worsened with international proposals for a ceasefire and prisoner exchange in Gaza. While the families of Israeli hostages and some centrist parties supported the agreement, right-wing and far-right parties strongly opposed it.

Under pressure from the far-right parties, Netanyahu refrained from striking a deal, fearing for his government’s stability.

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War Costs

In mid-September, The Jerusalem Post estimated that the cost of the war could reach 10% of Israel’s GDP, amounting to between 200 and 250 billion shekels (54 to 68 billion U.S. dollars).

Focus on Investigations

Attention in Israel is now turning to official inquiries that are expected to be conducted after the war to investigate the failures of October 7. These investigations may lead to calls for the resignation of several political and military leaders, including the head of military intelligence, Aharon Haliva, and the head of Unit 8200, Yossi Sariel.

Observers predict that the outcomes of these investigations could trigger a political earthquake in Israel.

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