Will Sinwar’s Death End the Gaza War?

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The assassination of Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, during an Israeli operation in Rafah, southern Gaza, has raised numerous questions about the possibility of a ceasefire and ending the longest war between the two sides.

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According to experts, Sinwar‘s death will not deter Israel from continuing the war for several reasons, most notably the commitments to dismantle and eliminate Hamas‘s capabilities, as well as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu‘s desire to maintain his political influence, since ending the war would put him in an uncertain future.

In his first reaction to Sinwar’s death, Netanyahu stated on Thursday that Hamas will no longer rule Gaza, and this is an opportunity for the people of Gaza to liberate themselves from the “tyranny of Hamas.”

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He added that this day marks the post-Hamas era, emphasizing that “the war is not over yet,” and noting that the region now has an opportunity to achieve peace, according to his statements.

Meanwhile, U.S. President Joe Biden said that “the opportunity is now ripe for a political settlement in Gaza after Hamas.”

He continued: “Sinwar was an insurmountable obstacle to achieving all those goals. That obstacle is no longer there, but there is still much work to be done.”

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Strategic Objectives

Palestinian expert on Israeli affairs, Suhail Diab, highlighted that past assassinations have always delayed wars, as they do not achieve any strategic objective.

Diab said that the killing of Sinwar will complicate matters further, particularly regarding the issue of prisoners and the continuation of the war. He noted that this will increase pressure on Netanyahu from the families of Israeli prisoners who protest daily to end the war, and that their protests will intensify after Sinwar’s death.

He continued: “Ideological movements like Hamas and Hezbollah have a structured leadership succession that doesn’t affect the movement’s operations,” adding that “Netanyahu will work to prolong the war, claiming that the goals and tasks he has set are not yet completed.”

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Four Israeli Scenarios

In this context, after the announcement of Sinwar‘s death outlined four scenarios for ending the war in Gaza.

The first scenario is that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announces his readiness to enter into swift negotiations. These talks would involve exchanging Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails, implementing a ceasefire in Gaza, and setting post-war arrangements.

The second scenario is that Sinwar’s death leads to flexibility from both Netanyahu and Hamas toward reaching an agreement acceptable to both sides, with each making concessions to enable an agreement.

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The prevailing belief is that the U.S., Egypt, and Qatar will seek to push this scenario into reality by applying pressure on both parties to close the chapter on the war.

The third scenario is that Sinwar‘s assassination encourages Netanyahu to carry out more military operations in Gaza, similar to what happened in Lebanon after Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah’s death, by launching further strikes on Hamas in hopes of eliminating the movement.

The fourth and final scenario is that a figure from Hamas‘s political bureau takes over, refusing to reach an agreement and insisting on the movement’s conditions for any deal. This would keep the issue of Israeli hostages in Gaza unresolved, and the war would continue.

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Prolonging the War

Palestinian researcher in international relations, Ashraf Aka, believes that Sinwar’s death will not lead to the cessation of the war in Gaza.

Aka explained that he believes Netanyahu and Israel’s goals now extend beyond killing Sinwar or eliminating Hamas leaders. He noted that Netanyahu aims to re-establish settlements, occupy Gaza, and displace its residents.

He further explained that prolonging and expanding the war is another goal for Netanyahu, pointing out that Sinwar‘s death has intertwined personal interests with Israel’s strategic objectives, meaning that his assassination will not swiftly end the war.