2024 U.S. Elections: Three Possible Paths for Trump to Reach the White House

5th November 2024

3 minutes read

2024 U.S. Elections: Three Possible Paths for Trump to Reach the White House

In general, polls show a very close race between the presidential candidates, Democrat Kamala Harris and her Republican opponent Donald Trump.

With equal chances of winning for Harris and Trump, the former president has three most likely paths to secure his return to the White House and achieve the 270 electoral votes needed, according to the American newspaper The Washington Post.

Securing 270 Votes

Based on The Washington Post’s average poll data, Trump’s most likely path to gaining 270 votes is to win three swing states: Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, assuming he wins in all other non-swing states that he won in 2020.

Trump currently leads in Georgia by two points and has a narrow lead of less than one point in both North Carolina and Pennsylvania, although these two states are slowly leaning towards the Republican billionaire, according to polls.

To win Pennsylvania, Trump would need either to regain voters in the suburbs of Philadelphia, whom he lost in 2020, or to continue improving his margins in Philadelphia itself, along with the more rural parts of the state.

The Sun Belt and Rust Belt

The second most likely path for Trump’s victory involves the Sun Belt region and one Rust Belt state other than Pennsylvania, as winning it would put him on the first path.

The Sun Belt includes Florida, South Carolina, and Georgia, along with a western section that covers Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas. The Rust Belt extends from southern New York to western Pennsylvania, passing through West Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, and ending in Michigan, Illinois, and Wisconsin.

This path is not difficult for Trump, as he leads in the polls in three states: Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina, even if only by a slim margin.

Although Harris leads in Michigan and Wisconsin, she has been losing support in these two states since early last month.

Wisconsin was one of the states won by less than one point in both 2016 and 2020.

As for Michigan, Trump won it in 2016 and could win it again this year, as the Democrats are losing support from Muslim Americans and Arab Americans due to the Gaza war.

2016 Scenario

The third and most probable path for Trump’s victory is a repeat of the 2016 scenario when he broke through the “blue wall,” turning the three Rust Belt states red for the Republicans for the first time in decades.

This scenario only requires a polling error similar to those in 2020 and 2016.

If the polls are inaccurate in Pennsylvania, for example, because pollsters have underestimated Trump’s support among working-class white voters, it is likely that polls are also inaccurate in Wisconsin and Michigan – the three states Trump needs to win.

Furthermore, Trump’s preference rating remains high in the Sun Belt states he needs to replicate his 2016 victory.