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Benjamin Netanyahu has no intention of relying on diplomacy to end the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, prioritizing political survival over extinguishing the “fires” in the Middle East.

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This is the assessment of Amos Harel, a military affairs analyst for the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, who argues that the Israeli Prime Minister seeks to prolong the war in Gaza for three reasons tied to his political interests.

In an analysis published Friday, Harel states that “prolonging the war actually serves Netanyahu‘s personal interests.”

These “personal interests” include, he explains, “avoiding three threats to his continued rule: early elections, the establishment of a governmental inquiry into the failures that led to the October 7 massacre, and the start of his testimony in his criminal trial early next month.”

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Harel adds, “The potential second term of Donald Trump as U.S. president could help free him from the pressures exerted by Joe Biden‘s administration.”

He suggests Netanyahu could then pursue more ambitious goals, such as the permanent occupation of parts of Gaza, rebuilding settlements in the territory, and possibly annexing the West Bank. “This is why settlers have been rejoicing over the past ten days,” Harel observes.

“No Reason”

Harel notes that, according to Israeli security assessments, there is no justification for continuing the wars in Gaza or Lebanon.

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“This is already being whispered in defense circles, and the public will soon understand it,” he says. “Most of the military threats posed by Hamas members to southern Israeli communities have been neutralized, and the threat to the center of the country has been minimized.”

Regarding Hezbollah, Harel claims its military capabilities have been significantly diminished, even though the organization continues to launch hundreds of rockets daily into northern Israel.

However, he remarks that “the government has no intention of offering a diplomatic resolution. There will be no agreement in Gaza, and the outlook is barely better in Lebanon.”

He concludes that as long as Netanyahu remains in charge, it is difficult to envision an end to these conflicts.

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Internal Conflicts and Stalemates

Harel also highlights tensions within Netanyahu‘s coalition, between ultra-Orthodox parties and those of the far-right.

He warns that prolonging the war in Lebanon would impose a heavy burden on Israeli reservists until 2025, with severe consequences for the economy.

He notes that “many reservist families are already struggling financially and emotionally, not to mention the growing number of casualties.”

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Since the start of the war, 793 Israeli soldiers, including 269 reservists, have been killed, according to official figures.

Harel also mentions that larger military operations in Lebanon would require the recall of additional reservist units, risking a major crisis if they refuse to serve.

What about Trump?

Harel finally discusses the potential role of Donald Trump, suggesting he might attempt to impose a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah before his inauguration on January 20.
However, he concludes that U.S. involvement remains limited and that Netanyahu‘s actions are aimed at prolonging the conflict in Gaza, where permanent infrastructure is already being built, signaling an occupation planned until at least 2025.

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