A New Phase of War… Is Gaza Preparing for the Worst-Case Scenario?

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Concerns are rising in Gaza that the renewed Israeli military attack could be “more deadly and destructive” than the previous one.

Last Tuesday morning, Israel resumed the war with sudden airstrikes that killed hundreds of Palestinians, ending a ceasefire that had lasted nearly two months and promising more destruction unless Hamas releases its remaining hostages and leaves the territory.

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For his part, former U.S. President Donald Trump expressed full support for the renewed Israeli attack and suggested last month relocating two million Palestinians from Gaza to other countries.

In contrast, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition has become “stronger than ever” after the return of a minister to the government and a lower number of hostages in Gaza since the October 7, 2023, attack by Hamas.

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More Brutality?

Coordinates reported by the Associated Press suggest that the next phase of the war “could be even more brutal” than the previous one, which resulted in tens of thousands of Palestinian deaths, the displacement of most of the population, and the destruction of much of Gaza due to the bombings.

On Wednesday, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated, “If all Israeli hostages are not released and Hamas is not expelled from Gaza, Israel will act with a violence you have never seen before.”

He added, addressing Gaza residents: “Return the hostages and expel Hamas, and other options will be offered to you, including leaving for other parts of the world for those who wish. The alternative is complete destruction.”

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Much Less U.S. Pressure

The U.S. agency pointed out that during the first 15 months of the war, the administration of former President Joe Biden provided critical military and diplomatic support to Israel but also attempted to limit civilian casualties. In the early days of the conflict, Biden convinced Israel to lift the full blockade on Gaza and repeatedly urged it to allow more humanitarian aid, with mixed results.

Biden opposed Israel’s attack on Rafah in southern Gaza last May, suspending an arms shipment in protest. However, Israel continued its strikes.

Biden also worked with Egypt and Qatar to broker a ceasefire through more than a year of negotiations, where Trump‘s team succeeded in pushing it across the finish line.

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However, it seems the Trump administration “placed no restrictions,” according to Associated Press.

It did not criticize Israel’s decision to once again close the crossings into Gaza, nor its unilateral withdrawal from the ceasefire agreement Trump claimed for himself, nor the strikes that killed hundreds of men, women, and children.

Israel says it targets only militants and must dismantle Hamas to prevent a repeat of the October 7 attack, which killed nearly 1,200 people and kidnapped 251 hostages.

The Biden administration has expressed doubts about these goals, stating months ago that Hamas is no longer capable of launching such an attack.

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The Israeli war on Gaza has killed more than 48,000 Palestinians before the ceasefire in January, according to the Gaza Ministry of Health.

Trump seemed to lose interest in the ceasefire in recent weeks when he said it should be canceled if Hamas did not immediately release all hostages.

A brief attempt by the White House to negotiate directly with Hamas was abandoned after it angered Israel.

Trump‘s envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, blamed Hamas for the collapse of the truce because it did not accept proposals for the immediate release of the hostages.

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Hamas stated it would not release the remaining hostages without more Palestinian prisoners, a permanent ceasefire, and Israeli withdrawal from Gaza as outlined in the ceasefire agreement.

Meanwhile, Trump suggested relocating all Gaza residents to other countries so the U.S. could seize the land and rebuild it for others.

Palestinians say they do not want to leave their homeland, and Arab countries have rejected the proposal outright.

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Netanyahu‘s Government: Then and Now

Netanyahu has faced intense pressure from hostage families and their supporters to adhere to the truce and bring the hostages home.

For months, thousands of protesters regularly gathered in downtown Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, blocking major highways and clashing with police.

But with the resumption of war, Netanyahu ignored these protesters and strengthened his far-right coalition.

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Right-wing extremist Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, who resigned in protest of the ceasefire, returned to the government shortly after Tuesday’s strikes.

He and Betzalel Smotrich, another far-right ally of Netanyahu, want to continue the war and expel Gaza’s residents through what they call voluntary migration while rebuilding Jewish settlements Israel dismantled two decades ago.

Netanyahu also ousted or forced many senior officials, who seemed more open to a hostage deal, to resign.

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Hamas and Its Allies in Chaos

Hamas continues to rule Gaza, but most of its senior leaders have been killed, and its military capabilities have been severely depleted. Israel claims to have killed around 20,000 militants—without providing evidence.

In its first attack since Israel ended the ceasefire, Hamas launched three rockets on Thursday, setting off air raid sirens in Tel Aviv, but causing no casualties.

Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which exchanged fire with Israel for much of the war, had to accept a ceasefire last fall after Israeli strikes killed most of its senior leadership.

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It is unlikely that Iran, which supports Hamas and Hezbollah and exchanged fire directly with Israel twice last year, will intervene, according to the Associated Press.

Israel stated it had inflicted significant damage on Iran’s air defense systems in a wave of retaliatory strikes last fall, and Trump threatened U.S. military action if Iran did not negotiate a new agreement on its nuclear program.

Meanwhile, the Houthis resumed long-range rocket fire on Israel, which has rarely caused injuries or significant damage.

The United States, in the meantime, launched a new wave of strikes on the Houthis, which may further limit their capabilities.

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