After the escalation of violence in Sudan, how could Libya be affected by the crisis?
As Sudan’s crisis intensifies, stifled by years of political instability, economic hardship, and widespread unrest, neighboring countries like Libya could become a victim of Sudan’s rapid deterioration.
Direct effect
According to Arab News, Libya is still paralyzed by its political crisis, and a fire on its border with similar dynamics is having serious repercussions on Libya, which is expecting some of the gains from the latest UN-led push to secure its long-term stability and unite its institutions.
“Given the interconnectedness of the region’s political, economic, and security environments, key stakeholders, regional gamers, aspiring statesmen, or potential intermediaries must recognize and address the potential consequences of the Sudan crisis outside of Libya’s political landscape, she said.”
“Any interventions calling for de-escalation and dialog must be accompanied by effective and practical strategies to promote stability in both countries and the wider North African region so that the unintended mistakes of the post-2011 decade, which are partly responsible for Libya’s woes as neighbors, are not repeated, she said, and it is easy to determine how the civil war in Sudan could quickly spread to Libya and other states from Egypt to Chad, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and South Sudan.”
Regional risk
“For Chad, the worsening situation in Sudan already poses significant risks, with many refugees, armed personnel, and weapons likely to cross the border, where the Sahel is already host to 400,000 Sudanese refugees, despite facing severe challenges ranging from extreme poverty to severe food insecurity that will only get worse with more displaced Sudanese, and how a Darfur-like conflict could become other powerful pressures, especially in porous border areas between fragile states, the International noted.” “In addition, their governments there will likely use the crisis to justify more liberalism, unbothered by threats of sanctions or isolation because the international community is likely to distract from events in Sudan.”
“Similarly, for Libya, cross-border migration would be one route for Sudan’s diseases to travel to the North African country, as Sudanese nationals flee the deteriorating situation in their country, they might seek refuge in Libya, increasing pressure on already overstretched security resources and services.”
“Sudan’s crisis will never be a domestic affair and is likely to fade between brief skirmishes, a ceasefire, protracted talks and vague compromises within its borders, she said.”
