Al-Burhan’s Scenarios with Iran… The Danger of Shiite Expansion
In a context where both warring parties have failed to achieve a decisive victory to end the fighting, and many regions continue to witness military operations and fierce clashes, information regarding casualties, injuries, and missing persons remains unavailable, with no journalists documenting events on the frontlines.
This is a rare “Sudanese” situation not seen in modern wars, where journalists have disappeared, even during the First World War (1914-1918), when media wasn’t as advanced as today. Journalists were present on the battlefields and did their duty, but no one understands why, in the April 2023 war, journalists affiliated with the military were excluded.
Despite the deliberate media blackout by both sides on the course of the war, many military truths have been revealed through Sudanese and foreign media. In this context, I would like to emphasize seven important points related to seven future scenarios that will determine the fate of the country, with one of them being the most likely
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Sudanese-Iranian Agreement ensures Iranian Military Support for al-Burhan, and Tehran’s Access to the Red Sea
- Scenario 1: After the failure of armed organizations affiliated with the Islamic movement, the “Shadow Brigades,” and the “Al-Bara’a Ibn Malik” organization, as well as remnants of factions, Al-Burhan will have no choice but to seek Iran’s assistance to save his regime from collapse, much like Bashar al-Assad did before. Al-Burhan has already begun serious talks with Iran’s incumbent government, and the first success of these talks was announced by the American newspaper “Bloomberg” on Wednesday, January 24, revealing that “Iran will provide drones to the Sudanese army, titled: Iranian drones, the latest proxy war tools in the Sudanese civil war. The delivery of drones to the Sudanese army could give it a significant advantage in the conflict, which could affect the balance of power and raise concerns about human rights.
- Scenario 2: In the context of Al-Burhan‘s absolute refusal to meet with “Hemetti” on instructions from the dominant Islamic movement in the Sovereignty Council and the Armed Forces, the military and political situation will remain unchanged, sparking anger from many governments, regional and international organizations, especially as the humanitarian situation deteriorates and conditions worsen. The United States and the European Union could intervene to compel him to accept dialogue with his archenemy, “Hemetti,” to avoid a catastrophe that could end what remains of Sudan.
– Scenario 3 : Many Sudanese and foreign media outlets have reported a state of anger openly expressed by officers within the armed forces due to General Yasser Al-Atta’s unilateral attack on Chad and South Sudan, a brazen move not seen within the armed forces since the era of the deposed president, who vilified America as being under his control. Yasser described the UAE as a “mafia state,” a statement that didn’t sit well with many officers who pointed out that the UAE hosts around 150,000 Sudanese nationals. What’s strange is that news of the officers’ anger towards Yasser was made public despite its secretive nature.
Scenario 4 : Many Sudanese political commentators have commented on Al-Burhan‘s retreat from leadership in August and his resort to Port Sudan, refusing to return to Khartoum. This retreat caused a setback and a significant blow to the armed forces, tilting the balance in favor of the Rapid Support Forces. Once the leader relinquishes control of the battles and supervision, all barracks collapse one after another, followed by the fall of cities. Al-Burhan is no longer acceptable to the military officers, and his presence among them has become a disgrace that must be disposed of. This scenario is highly likely to occur, with General Yasser being a strong candidate to overthrow Al-Burhan with the support of the majority of officers.
– Scenario 5 : There is a high possibility of Al-Burhan being ousted under pressure from members of the Islamic movement, just as they ousted their leader, Hassan al-Turabi, in 1999. Al-Turabi attempted to seize power at the expense of Bashir, whom they had installed as the country’s president. After Al-Burhan‘s ousting, it will be announced that he voluntarily stepped down from power, similar to his predecessor Ibn Auf in April 2019.
– Scenario 6 : With Iran’s entry into Sudan’s war as an active participant alongside the armed forces, movements of many countries with interests in Sudan will be activated. Afterward, the country may witness a real war between Iranian forces, which will certainly be present in military bases to oversee Iranian missiles and drones, and Israel. Just as Iran oversees Hezbollah’s war against Israeli soldiers on the Lebanese-Israeli border.
– Scenario 7 (The Last): Returning to the title of the article, “The Last Resort: When All Options Are Exhausted… Rushing to Iran.” This rush by Al-Burhan was unjustified and will change Sudan’s history for the worse. Whenever Iran enters a country, it suffers from overwhelming destruction. Iran’s dark history during the era of the deposed president is far from forgotten.
