Policy

Artificial Intelligence on the Battlefield: Will It Lose Control?


With its characteristic sound resembling that of motorbikes, the V1 flying bomb – nicknamed the “buzz bomb” – was one of the most feared weapons of World War II.

Launched by Germany to create chaos in England, the bomb terrified Londoners with its approaching buzz. Once the buzzing stopped, people had roughly 12 seconds to take cover before the missile fell and exploded.

Today, a similar nightmare has resurfaced with the use of drones, according to ABC News. While weapons have advanced, the chilling buzz echoing in the sky remains the same.

Throughout 2024, conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have highlighted the growing impact of drones in modern warfare, the American network reports, noting that they are being manufactured and deployed in record numbers.

New AI capabilities, fiber optics designed to evade jamming, and even drones guided via animal relays have entered the battlefield. Some drones have even managed to bypass Israel’s advanced Iron Dome air defense system.

Reports indicate they have been used to stalk and harass civilians in Ukraine and to target leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah in Lebanon and Gaza.

A Persistent Threat

Analysts state that 2024 has shown the drone threat is here to stay and that nations must address it urgently.

These are some of the significant developments this year in drone warfare.

According to the American network, drone production was almost nonexistent in Ukraine before Russia’s military operation in February 2022. However, President Volodymyr Zelensky recently stated that his country is now capable of ramping up production to 4 million units annually.

In October, he announced plans to produce 1.5 million drones by the end of the year, compared to just 300,000 in 2023.

Russia is also boosting local production, aiming for approximately 1.4 million drones. President Vladimir Putin declared, “Drone production is set to increase tenfold this year.”

This surge has driven Russian forces to carry out record-breaking airstrikes on Ukraine, primarily using Shahed kamikaze drones.

These offensive drones, initially cheaply imported, have been modified by Russia and are now mass-produced locally.

According to Ukrainian Air Force data, Moscow deployed a total of 2,576 drones in November alone. Some attacks involved as many as 200 drones simultaneously.

Drones in the Middle East

Similar scenarios have unfolded in the Middle East. Last April, Iran launched an attack on Israel using approximately 185 drones. Analysts described it as one of the largest drone attacks in history.

Israel claimed to have intercepted 99% of the weapons used, including all the drones.

However, some drone strikes by Hezbollah – the Iranian-backed militant group in Lebanon – successfully bypassed Israeli air defenses throughout 2024.

Samuel Bendett, an associate fellow at the Center for a New American Security, stated, “We have witnessed real progress made by nations involved in drone development this year.”

An increasing number of armies worldwide are now relying on tactical and medium-range drones, according to Samuel, who told the American network “ABC”:
“For instance, in the wars in Sudan, Myanmar, and Syria, as well as the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah (…), it is clear that unmanned systems of all types are having an impact.”

FPV Drones

After gaining fame in 2023, the Ukrainian government decided to produce one million FPV drones last year. Originally designed for civilian racing, these drones are operated using a remote control and a headset providing live camera feed.

According to “ABC,” these drones carry an explosive warhead that can be dropped with greater precision than most artillery systems because they are guided directly to their target.
Depending on the drone’s size and payload, their range can vary from 5 to over 20 kilometers.

Samuel Bendett noted that Russia and Ukraine expanded the development and production of drones throughout the year, experimenting with new models. These were used to drop munitions into tank hatches and chase troops on the battlefield.
Such incidents are often captured on camera and shared on social media.

Ukrainian soldiers identified drones as their greatest threat, stating that their numbers in the air are now so high it has become difficult to move them to and from trenches.

Fiber-Optic Drones

Samuel Bendett also discussed a new type of drone defining 2024: fiber-optic-equipped drones. These drones, a variant of FPV models, are connected via a fiber-optic cable transmitting signals between the drone and its operator.

Defense analyst Sam Cranny-Evans explained that this wired design made drone signals “unjammable (…). There is no way for electronic warfare systems to inject signals into the link between the FPV and its operator.”

These drones use radio frequency signals to function, but these do not travel via vulnerable airwaves. Instead, they pass through a fiber-optic cable coiled beneath the drone.

Methods to Shoot Them Down

Electronic warfare systems have proven the most effective means of stopping drones. When the drone’s signal is jammed, the pilot loses control, or the operator cannot see the video feed, depending on the frequency disrupted.

FPV drones typically have a 20-kilometer cable, can fly for 20 minutes at a speed of 60 km/h, and carry a payload of about 5.5 kilograms, accounting for the weight of the fiber-optic cable.

Drones as Kamikaze Boats

Kamikaze drones were a notable feature of 2024. According to Bendett, “throughout this, we saw both sides (in Ukraine) use long-range kamikaze drones to strike each other’s energy, military, and industrial infrastructure.”

In the Middle East, inexpensive kamikaze drones were also widely deployed. Hezbollah, using Iranian technology, challenged Israeli defense systems.

The Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen began targeting commercial vessels, including U.S.-owned ships, in the Red Sea with kamikaze drones early in the year. Later, they introduced new unmanned kamikaze boats for their attacks.

Dimitris Maniatis, CEO of maritime risk management company Marisk, stated that these boat drones represent a sophisticated tactical shift, allowing the Houthis to strike more precisely and at greater distances.

Robotic Dogs and Unmanned Vehicles

Bendett noted that this year saw an increased use of unmanned ground vehicles resembling buggies. These vehicles are employed in kamikaze missions, transporting ammunition and supplies to troops in trenches, and evacuating wounded soldiers.

Bendett stated: “We are witnessing many developments in Ukraine… Several hundred companies are working on developing drones, including unmanned ground vehicles.”

Robotic dogs, described as “disguised drones moving on the ground,” have also appeared on the battlefield.

According to the American network, these robotic dogs have been used for reconnaissance missions and delivering medication to soldiers on the front lines.

However, the United States and China unveiled experiments this year with robotic dogs equipped with machine guns.

AI-Powered Drones

In response to the growing challenges posed by electronic warfare systems, Ukraine and Russia have accelerated the development of AI-guided drones.

AI-powered drones possess the capability to identify and target objectives without requiring communication with their operators, making them immune to signal jamming.

Advancements in Ukraine have broadly been split between optical systems that assist in identifying targets and guiding drones to them, and terrain mapping for navigation.
Paul Lushenko, director of special operations at the U.S. Army War College, stated that integrating AI could herald the era of fourth-generation drones. However, he was cautious about claims that these technologies could radically shift the battlefield dynamics.

He told ABC News: “I am very cautious when people start talking about an Oppenheimer-like moment akin to the development of the atomic bomb,” indicating that AI will likely continue to play a primarily supportive role.

It is unlikely that swarms of AI-powered killer robots will enter the battlefield anytime soon, Lushenko added: “We tend to overstate the capabilities of drone swarms and overhype how easy it is to integrate AI into these systems. It’s extremely complex.”

“But robotic dogs equipped with machine guns, those are truly terrifying,” he added.

What’s Next?

Professor Lushenko stated that while drones are capable of shifting the balance between attack and defense in conflicts, they have not created major “breakthroughs” on the battlefield. He added: “I think this year has been exceptional for identifying the advantages and limitations of this emerging practice of drone warfare.”

He continued: “They have not been able to achieve truly strategic effects… Drones have been tactically effective.”

Bendett noted that numerous trends have been tracked throughout the year and that militaries worldwide will take note, adding that 2025 might also bring its own surprises.

“It could be artificial intelligence or greater use of unmanned ground vehicles alongside drones… I think we’ll stand by and watch what happens,” he concluded.

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