China bares its teeth… A major production leap for stealth fighters

15th May 2025

3 minutes read

China bares its teeth… A major production leap for stealth fighters

Since China first unveiled its prototype of the J-20 stealth fighter in December 2010, it has become the subject of much speculation.

According to a report by Military Watch magazine, the post-Cold War world — particularly after the collapse of the Soviet Union — has seen a notable decline in fighter jet production with each new generation, primarily due to skyrocketing costs and increasingly complex technologies.

However, unlike the United States and Russia, which maintained large-scale production of their main fighters — notably the F-35 — and exported them extensively, China did not follow the same path with its most advanced aircraft. The J-20 is essentially banned from export, meaning that all production is exclusively reserved for the Chinese Air Force.

This unique approach has raised questions about the final production volume of the J-20, especially in light of the absence of other fifth-generation models in the pipeline, positioning the J-20 as the cornerstone of China’s air force modernization for decades to come.

In 2018, military experts told the U.S. House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence that China could produce up to 500 J-20 aircraft. However, the accelerated pace of production in the following years led analysts to revise their estimates. It is now almost certain that the final number will easily exceed 700 units — and may even go significantly higher.

Abraham Ait, one of the leading experts on modern Chinese fighter programs and author of The Chinese Stealth Fighter: The J-20, a Mighty Dragon and a Growing Challenge to Western Air Dominance, explained that the rapid expansion of J-20 production facilities was a clear sign of an ambitious plan to build the aircraft in large numbers.

He noted that China’s growing demand for fifth-generation fighters is primarily due to the anticipated spread of American F-35s among potential adversaries, with the number expected to exceed 2,000 units in the coming years — even if production is scaled back.

This reality makes it implausible for China to settle for a limited number of J-20s. On the contrary, it compels the country to produce them in large quantities to ensure a balanced air power equation.

By 2023, reports indicated that annual J-20 production had reached between 100 and 120 aircraft — a figure unmatched by any Chinese fighter in decades, and unmatched by any other twin-engine fighter worldwide in the same period. These numbers have fueled projections that total production could surpass 1,000 units in the near future, representing a significant leap in the capabilities of the Chinese Air Force.

Ait noted that the last time China produced a fighter in such large quantities was in the 1950s and 1960s with the J-6 — a much smaller and far less advanced aircraft compared to the J-20.

This scale of production indicates that the J-20 is not a niche, elite aircraft in limited numbers, but is instead likely to become the backbone of the Chinese Air Force, equipping nearly half — or possibly the majority — of its combat units.

Such a profound shift has not been seen in China for decades and reflects a clear strategy aimed at building an air force capable of confronting future challenges — especially as the J-20’s roles expand and diversify thanks to its cutting-edge stealth technology and superior performance compared to other fighters like the J-16.