Does Hezbollah’s Defeat Mark the End of the Iranian Era?

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Robert Worth, a correspondent for The Atlantic, paints a grim picture of a fractured country, hinting at a scenario that may be music to Israeli ears: Hezbollah and Iran are losing their grip on it.

The Atlantic has shed light on Lebanon’s dire situation, describing it as a “torn nation” plagued by an economic crisis and ongoing conflict in its southern region. Hezbollah’s influence is waning as residents flee, and debates arise about what Lebanon will look like post-war.

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At the end of September, just days after Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was assassinated in an airstrike on the group’s stronghold in southern Beirut, The Atlantic correspondent met a Hezbollah supporter in a seaside café in West Beirut.

The man, an academic with a light white beard and a weary appearance as if he hadn’t slept in days, has a deep, long-standing connection to Hezbollah. He stated that Hezbollah “has never faced what Israel is doing now—not in 1982, not in 2006. This is all-out war.”

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When asked about the possibility of Iran ceasing its support for Hezbollah, he responded after a tense silence, “There are questions.” He added, “Is it like raising a son who is now 42 years old and then abandoning him? No. That doesn’t make sense.”

He said that fighters on the border are prepared, and that Israeli soldiers will dig their own graves and soon beg for a ceasefire. But then, as described by the correspondent, the man slowed down his speech.

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The man mentioned Ahmed Shukeiri, the first president of the Palestine Liberation Organization, who said on the eve of the Six-Day War that the Jews who survived would stay in Palestine, though he predicted none would survive.

The Hezbollah supporter added, “I don’t want to be like him.” It took a moment to understand the historical comparison: he implied that the movement to which he had dedicated himself might face total destruction. “This tea we’re drinking—we don’t know if it will be the last.”

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In a comprehensive article published in The Atlantic, Robert Worth portrays a fractured country, with one point that Israelis might be pleased to hear: Hezbollah and Iran are losing control over Lebanon. The article’s title quotes the idea of “the end of the Iranian era.” Here are some of the highlights:

Out of Fuel, They Continued on Foot

Hezbollah isn’t just a militia, Worth writes. It’s a state within a state—more powerful than Lebanon’s weak, divided government and certainly stronger than the Lebanese army. The organization doesn’t just smuggle weapons; it also moves billions of dollars from Iran. It operates banks, hospitals, a social welfare system, a parallel economy of duty-free imports, and a drug trade that has enriched and empowered the once-oppressed Shia community.

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The road to Tyre reveals the depth of the crisis. According to the article, the usually bustling coastal road is now nearly deserted, with drivers speeding up to 87 miles per hour. Smoke from the previous night’s explosions can be seen along the road.

Yellow Hezbollah flags wave alongside new billboards featuring photos of “martyrs” with the inscription “Nasrallah”—a play on words in Arabic meaning “victory from God.” On the northern side of the road, dozens of abandoned cars line the way, left by families fleeing south who ran out of fuel and continued on foot.

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Worth describes Tyre, usually a bustling city, as a ghost town. The Rest House hotel, a fenced tourist complex, has become a safe haven for refugees and journalists. From its broad balcony overlooking a beautiful beach, one can see Hezbollah rockets being launched. An Arab journalist remarks, “This happens a lot. That’s how it is in war. You get used to it until assumptions change, and then the rockets fall on you.”

In the city of Sidon, an airstrike on a residential building killed at least 45 people, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Health. Israel claimed responsibility, stating it had killed a local Hezbollah leader and other operatives.

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Mohammad Ahmed Jaradi, 31, was among the first to arrive at the scene. “I heard people screaming under the rubble. I saw my aunt when they rescued her. Her internal organs were outside, her head crushed. That’s my last image of her.”

Layal recounts how many residents receive calls from Israelis demanding they evacuate their homes. Many follow the Arabic-language account of Avichay Adraee, an Israeli army spokesperson, on X (formerly Twitter), where he posts warnings about upcoming attacks.

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Layal’s neighbor, Ghadir, received a call from a man speaking Arabic with a Palestinian accent who knew all her personal details. When she left her apartment, the building was bombed that night.

The Economic Crisis as an Opportunity for Israeli Intelligence

In a bid to improve its image, Hezbollah organized a tour for about 300 journalists through the devastated areas of its southern Beirut stronghold. Worth describes how a Hezbollah representative at each bomb site gave a speech about the innocent civilians killed, as journalists rushed to photograph the smoking ruins.

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One story recounted by a correspondent involves Hamoudi, a 25-year-old secular Shiite filmmaker in Beirut. His sister says, “He didn’t pray. My mother would tell me, ‘You won’t be a martyr if you don’t pray.’”

Hamoudi loved women, music, and parties, living in the secular Hamra area rather than Hezbollah’s stronghold in Dahiya. Last September, he decided to join the fighters. One day after filming his martyrdom video, he was killed in an Israeli strike. His sister tearfully recalls, “He was my friend, my brother, my secret keeper.” Instead of vowing revenge, she says, “I’m thinking of leaving the country.”

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Ashraf Rifi, former head of Lebanon’s security forces, explained to The Atlantic how Israel successfully infiltrated Hezbollah’s ranks. Hezbollah’s involvement in the Syrian war, he says, made its fighters vulnerable to Israeli intelligence. Additionally, Lebanon’s economic crisis has made many vulnerable to recruitment as collaborators. On September 17, thousands of pagers were destroyed in a staged operation.

A doctor at a major hospital described the chaos that ensued, with dozens of young men admitted without registering their names—all under the name “George,” a typical Christian name. Rifi estimated that around 20 percent of Hezbollah’s mid- to upper-level leaders were killed in Israeli operations. “I think the Iranian era is over in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.”

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Faith in Lebanon

In Tripoli, at the trendy Kropp restaurant, Worth describes a heated debate about the country’s future. A local municipal official said, “I don’t see anyone who believes in a state called Lebanon. I see Christians, Sunnis, Shia, and Druze loyal to their sect or party. There is no public interest.” However, young historian Charbel Hayek passionately disagreed, arguing that Lebanon has unique qualities that set it apart from other Arab countries: religious diversity, democracy, higher education, and personal freedoms.

In his article, a former senior Lebanese army officer close to Chief of Staff Joseph Aoun warned that “only Iran can disarm Hezbollah.” Despite the heavy blow, he stated that Hezbollah still has significant fighting power in the south capable of acting independently.

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“But over time, Hezbollah will feel the lack of funds. That will be the biggest problem. When the Shia return to the south, who will rebuild?” he added.

At night, from the roof of a hotel in Beirut, The Atlantic correspondent describes orange flames erupting from the southern suburbs of the city after an air raid, saying, “It looks like a volcanic eruption.” A group of young Lebanese nearby filmed the scene on their mobile phones, then resumed sipping cocktails.

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Meanwhile, about a quarter of Lebanon’s population has been displaced. At Beirut’s airport, Worth noted people sleeping outside, hoping to get a ticket for a flight abroad. Foreign airlines have suspended flights, and over 300,000 Syrian refugees have fled back to Syria, demonstrating the depth of the fear gripping the country.