Gaza after the War: Divergent Plans and Risky Scenarios
Since former U.S. President Donald Trump proposed the expulsion of Gaza’s residents, movements across the Middle East have accelerated in search of an alternative for the future of the war-torn territory.
However, every proposal appears acceptable to some while being rejected by others, further complicating the political landscape and making a sustainable solution elusive. This is how The New York Times sees the situation.
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Trump‘s Plan
According to the plan proposed by former U.S. President Donald Trump, which faced widespread rejection both regionally and internationally, the United States would oversee Gaza and relocate its population.
The Arab Plan
Meanwhile, Arab nations adopted a plan to rebuild Gaza without displacing Palestinians, countering Trump’s proposal.
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This plan also called for unifying the Palestinian ranks under the umbrella of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), which would sideline Hamas, as the movement is not part of the organization.
According to the Arab plan, an independent committee composed of non-partisan technocrats would manage Gaza until the Palestinian Authority (PA) regains control over the territory.
During a summit, Egypt presented a $53 billion plan over five years—an amount aligned with UN estimates—to reconstruct Gaza.
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Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi stated that the plan would ensure that Gaza’s 2.3 million residents remain in their homeland, responding to Trump’s plan to relocate them to Egypt and Jordan while rebuilding Gaza and turning it into the “Riviera of the Middle East.”
The Arab proposal, which was rejected by both Israel and the United States, received European support. It was also praised by U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Whitkov.
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Israeli Proposals
Israel, on the other hand, has put forward two proposals: the first involves relinquishing partial control to the Palestinians while preventing the establishment of a Palestinian state, while the second suggests a full occupation of Gaza.
The need for clear plans intensified after the ceasefire was declared in January. Trump‘s statements about forced displacement accelerated regional efforts to find an alternative.
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However, The New York Times highlights that each plan contains elements that are unacceptable to one party or another—be it Israel, Hamas, or the Arab states that some hope will finance and oversee Gaza’s future.
Israel seeks a Gaza free of Hamas, a stance the movement’s military wing strongly opposes, especially after its October 2023 attack, which triggered the war.
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“The Devil is in the Details”
Former U.S. Ambassador to Israel Thomas R. Nides commented, “The devil is in the details, and none of the details in these plans make any sense.”
He added, “Israel and Hamas have fundamentally opposing positions, while parts of the Arab plan are unacceptable to Israel, and vice versa. I encourage people to propose new ideas.”
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He continued, “But it is extremely difficult for anyone to find common ground unless there is a significant shift in dynamics.”
According to the newspaper, Trump’s plan may satisfy many Israelis but is entirely unacceptable to Hamas and the United States’ Arab partners.
Ultimately, The New York Times concluded that despite the wave of proposals since January, Israelis and Palestinians are no closer to an agreement on Gaza’s future than they were at the beginning of the year—“which, in turn, increases the risk of renewed war.”
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Obstacles to a Resolution
Technically, the ceasefire agreed upon in January was supposed to last only six weeks, ending in early March.
At present, both sides are maintaining an informal truce while continuing negotiations—mediated by Egypt, Qatar, and the United States—to formalize an extension.
However, achieving this goal appears distant, as Hamas demands that Israel accept a post-war plan before releasing more hostages, while Tel Aviv seeks the release of additional hostages without committing to an agreement on Gaza’s future.
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While some Israelis might accept any deal that ensures the return of the 59 hostages still held in Gaza—of whom 24 are reportedly alive—key members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition government refuse to agree.
Highlighting the deep divisions between the two sides, Israel cut electricity to Gaza’s desalination plant on Sunday—the last facility in the region still receiving Israeli power.
This move, which was widely condemned, followed Israel’s decision last week to suspend humanitarian aid to Gaza.
Additionally, Israel refused to withdraw from the border between Egypt and Gaza over the weekend, violating a condition of the initial ceasefire agreement.
Despite these tensions, recent days have seen some political momentum. A Hamas delegation visited Egypt over the weekend to discuss Gaza’s future, while an Israeli delegation was scheduled to arrive in Qatar on Monday for further mediation.
On Sunday evening, Israeli media aired interviews with Adam Boehler, the U.S. envoy for hostage affairs, in which he spoke of “some progress” from “the perspective of small steps.”
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Meanwhile, senior Hamas official Mousa Abu Marzouk recently told The New York Times that he is personally open to negotiations regarding the disarmament of the movement—a step he believes would improve the chances of reaching a settlement.
However, Hamas distanced itself from Abu Marzouk’s statements, claiming they were “taken out of context.”
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Grim Scenarios
Israeli analysts argue that the longer the deadlock persists without hostage releases, the greater the likelihood that Israel will resume fighting.
Without a breakthrough, Israel will be forced to either accept Hamas’ continued presence in the long term—an outcome many government ministers reject—or return to war to push Hamas back, said Ofer Shelah, a former member of Israel’s parliament and a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.
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He added, “Under the current circumstances, we are on a path leading to an Israeli occupation of Gaza, which would make Israel responsible for the fate of two million people.”
Shelah warned that this would “have lasting consequences not only for Palestinians in Gaza but also for Israel itself, which would likely become embroiled in a costly war of attrition to maintain control over the area.”
