Gaza and Iran outside the Israeli decision… Who controls them then?

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Developments in Iran and Gaza are reshaping Israel’s security and diplomatic movements, turning the latter into a secondary player in some of its most sensitive files.

This is the conclusion of an analysis published by Yediot Aharonot under the title: “Israel’s policy toward Gaza and Iran is now being run by Trump, not Netanyahu.”

The author argues that U.S. President Donald Trump “has effectively come to dominate Israel’s national security agenda and dictates critical decisions to Benjamin Netanyahu’s government.”

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In this regard, he writes: “Whether we like it or not, we must acknowledge a fundamental truth: U.S. President Donald Trump not only dominates Israel’s national security agenda, but now dictates to the government the steps expected regarding the most sensitive security and diplomatic issues.”

He adds that this occurs “with full awareness that many of these moves place Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a severe internal political dilemma within his government and coalition, and even threaten the survival of the government.”

The analysis points out that this new reality “has led to the marginalization of the Israeli cabinet and its exclusion from substantive debates, particularly regarding the Iranian file and the transition to the second phase of Washington’s plan for Gaza, while sensitive decisions are now managed through limited channels, outside the traditional institutions of decision-making.”

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American ambiguity and Israeli concern

The analysis also notes that the ambiguity surrounding the American position on a possible strike against Iran is generating growing concern in Israel, amid fears of a potential Iranian retaliation that could reach the home front, without Tel Aviv having the ability to influence the timing or nature of the American decision, which remains subject to Trump’s personal calculations and his assessment of costs and gains.

It emphasizes that this ambiguity is not limited to Israel alone, but also affects the U.S. administration itself, noting that “President Trump is known for making his decisions at the last moment, and sometimes for reversing them if he believes their cost outweighs their benefits, as seen in previous situations that nearly led to military confrontation before being abandoned at the last minute.”

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Preparation without decision

So far, the Pentagon and U.S. Central Command have not received orders beyond military readiness, involving the deployment of naval and air forces capable of carrying out precise strikes inside Iran, alongside reinforcing the defense of U.S. forces, bases, and interests in the Middle East, including Israel.

In this context, the newspaper indicated that meetings between the CENTCOM commander and the Israeli army chief of staff focused “on scenarios of joint defense in case Iran responds with missile or drone attacks, as well as potential coordination of intelligence and operational support should an American strike be decided or if Israel comes under direct attack.”

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However, in the absence of a final political decision, these consultations have remained within the framework of “contingency planning,” pending what Trump will decide, who, according to U.S. reports, has demanded a plan ensuring a “clear victory,” without specifying its nature or final form.

The analysis argues that Trump’s previous retreat from striking Iran deprived Washington of the element of surprise and allowed the Iranian leadership, headed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, to take refuge within networks of tunnels and fortified shelters, reducing the effectiveness of any future limited strike.

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It concludes that Israel, under these circumstances, finds itself “compelled to adapt to the priorities of the White House,” both in managing tensions with Iran and in arranging the “day after” in Gaza, which “reflects an unprecedented decline in the margin of independence of Israeli decision-making and places Netanyahu’s government before an extremely sensitive political and security test in the coming phase.”

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