Guinea elects its first president since the 2021 coup… Doumbouya takes center stage

Voters in Guinea head to the polls on Sunday in a presidential election widely expected to grant Mamadi Doumbouya, who led the 2021 coup, a seven-year term.

With today’s vote, the West African nation completes its transition to civilian rule.

The former special forces commander, believed to be in his early forties, is facing eight other contenders in a race that lacks a truly strong challenger.

Ousted president Alpha Condé and veteran opposition leader Cellou Dalein Diallo remain in exile.

Guinea holds the world’s largest reserves of bauxite and some of the richest untapped iron ore deposits in Simandou, which was officially launched last month after years of delay.

Doumbouya has credited himself with pushing the project forward and ensuring that Guinea benefits from its output.

This year, his government also revoked the license of Guinea Alumina Corporation, a subsidiary of Emirates Global Aluminium, following a dispute over the refinery, transferring its assets to a state-owned company.

This shift toward resource nationalism — echoed in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger — has bolstered his popularity, along with the vigor of his youth in a country where the median age is about 19.

Doumbouya is expected to further consolidate his authority.

Benedict Manzin, senior analyst for Middle East and Africa at risk consultancy Sibylline, said that if elected, “Doumbouya is likely to use his position to entrench his own power and that of the military over Guinea.”

He added that it is “particularly likely he will position his allies and partners to benefit from the anticipated economic boom linked to the start of production at Simandou.”

The transitional charter (constitution) adopted after the coup had barred members of the military council from running in elections.

However, last September, Guineans overwhelmingly approved a new constitution that removed this provision, extended presidential terms to seven years, and created a Senate.

Around 6.7 million people have registered to vote, and preliminary results are expected within 48 to 72 hours after polling stations close.