Hedgehog shield and pragmatism… 6 lessons from Trump for world leaders in 2026
The American magazine Foreign Policy has long published, at the start of each year, its writers’ visions for the coming period and their insights into the major trends shaping international politics.
As 2026 approaches, the question has become different — and more urgent: what have world leaders learned from the first year of Donald Trump’s second term? And how will those lessons shape their policies and alliances in the year ahead?
According to the magazine, the Trump administration — even more than during his first term — triggered a deep earthquake in U.S. foreign policy: broad tariffs, constant questioning of traditional alliances, direct deals with Washington’s adversaries, and a clear tendency to treat international relations as short-term transactions.
The scene often looked chaotic and confusing, Foreign Policy notes, yet it forced major capitals to confront an unavoidable reality: dealing with Washington under Trump requires cold pragmatism, high flexibility, and constant readiness for worst-case scenarios.
Lesson 1: China — how to contain Trump?
While many world leaders voiced concern over Trump’s trade threats, China emerged from 2025 with fewer losses than expected. The message Beijing drew was clear: Trump is more liberated from institutional constraints and less predictable, yet highly sensitive to domestic economic pressure.
Chinese leadership learned that Trump’s maximal threats often erode under market pressure, lobbying groups, and the anxiety of American consumers.
It also realized that diversifying trade partners and expanding alternative markets provide greater shock-absorption capacity. More importantly, targeted responses aimed at specific weaknesses in U.S. supply chains are more effective than broad confrontations.
In this context, Beijing is likely to bet in 2026 on strategic patience and on narrow deals that give Trump “symbolic victories” suitable for the media, without offering substantive concessions — while deepening economic and political ties with Europe, Asia, and the Gulf to reduce its strategic dependence on Washington.
Lesson 2: India — resetting ties with the United States
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi welcomed Trump’s return to the White House enthusiastically, but soon faced a less friendly reality, especially after new tariffs were imposed on Indian goods.
In 2026, India is expected to adopt a more balanced and realistic approach: avoiding open confrontation with Trump, keeping channels open with the wider American establishment — from Congress to the Pentagon — while accelerating the diversification of its economic and security partnerships, according to Foreign Policy.
India’s core message is now clear: reduce excessive reliance on Washington, without severing ties.
Lesson 3: Allies — “be like hedgehogs”
From Ukraine to the Baltic states and Taiwan, allies reached one unequivocal conclusion: U.S. security guarantees are no longer as reliable as before. In Trump’s world, protection is not free, and survival requires self-deterrence.
Ukraine, having practically stepped back from its aspiration to join NATO, is focusing on building a “steel hedgehog” that is difficult to swallow militarily.
Europe has embarked on its largest rearmament effort in decades, driven by fears of a potential security vacuum. Taiwan and Japan have boosted defense spending and focused on capabilities designed to make any military adventure against them extremely costly.
The lesson is clear: self-reliance has become an existential necessity, not just a political option.
Lesson 4: CEOs — think twice before investing
In 2025, the business world was jolted by Trump’s unpredictable policies, including incidents such as the detention of South Korean workers employed in new factories inside the United States.
The message was troubling: even complying with Trump’s wish to “re-industrialize” America can become a political and legal liability.
In 2026, this climate may push multinational companies to redirect investments toward more stable alternatives, such as Vietnam or Canada.
Although the U.S. market remains attractive, political uncertainty has become a major deterrent for investors.
Lesson 5: Europe — keep calm and carry on
So far, the European Union has managed its relationship with Trump relatively well, avoiding panic: it accepted limited trade compromises, avoided hasty retaliations, and preserved a reasonable degree of unity.
But 2026 brings tougher tests — from Ukraine to digital rules — including the possibility that Trump may use international summits to impose bilateral deals that weaken collective positions.
Europe’s likely response is to stay the course: patience, internal unity, and greater strategic autonomy.
Lesson 6: Israel — aid is no longer guaranteed
Trump’s Middle East policy has proven to be guided more by instinct than doctrine. In this context, U.S. military assistance to Israel is no longer as protected as it once was.
Trump’s recent statements clearly indicate he does not automatically view such aid as a “profitable deal.”
This reality puts Israel before a new challenge: how to convince a president who evaluates international relations through costs and returns? In 2026, Tel Aviv may find itself expected to offer greater political or economic concessions in a world where alliances are no longer fixed or guaranteed.
