Iraq: Will the unrest return after the decision of the judiciary to refuse to dissolve the parliament?

After the Iraqi Supreme Court’s ruling on Wednesday that it did not have the legal authority to dissolve parliament, observers described the decision as increasing the risks in the country’s unprecedented 11-month political crisis. The Federal Supreme Court’s ruling states that it does not have the authority under the Iraqi constitution to dissolve the legislative council, a key demand of Shiite cleric Muqtada Al-Sadr.

Imminent disturbances

Al-Sadr’s bloc won a majority of votes in the parliamentary elections last October but was unable to form a majority government, and his followers stormed the parliament in late July to prevent their rivals from the Shiite groups supported by Iran from forming a government, and with the marches that followed, and clashes with security forces, counter-marches, and sit-ins outside the parliament, the government formation process stalled. Al-Sadr demands the dissolution of parliament, the holding of early elections, and he is in a power struggle with his Iranian-backed opponents since the vote, according to the English-language Arab Weekly. The report confirmed that the court’s decision was the last to rule on Al-Sadr’s demands amid fears of further unrest, because it effectively rejects the cleric’s request and further deepens the impasse between him and his rivals.

Calm before the storm

Last week, at least 30 people were killed in two days of clashes between al-Sadr’s loyalists and security forces, bringing Iraq to the brink of street war. Hostilities ended when al-Sadr ordered his supporters to withdraw. Al-Sadr’s opponents within the Coordination Framework, an alliance of Iran-backed Shiite parties, said they were not opposed to holding early elections but insisted that parliament meet to vote on a new electoral law and dissolve itself. Al-Sadr opposed this and called on the judiciary to abolish the Legislative Council, but with neither of them willing to give up the mechanisms for holding early elections. Besides the court’s ruling on Wednesday, the crisis appears to be deepening.