The growing influence of a group affiliated with Al-Qaeda in western Mali has raised serious concerns about potential threats to the national security of neighboring Mauritania and Senegal. The Timbuktu Institute for Peace Studies expressed alarm over attempts by Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) to infiltrate Mauritania and Senegal, in what appears to be a new strategy aimed at expanding the group’s influence in a region already suffering from instability and unrest.

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The group has been launching increasingly frequent attacks on the armies of Mali’s neighboring countries, such as Benin, amid the collapse of joint military operations—developments that have given the group a significant boost.

A wave of military coups in the region has caused the disintegration of large-scale operations like France’s Operation Barkhane, which began in 2013.

These missions failed to curb the influence of JNIM and other extremist groups active across West Africa.

In this context, African affairs and military expert Amadou Diallo said that “the concerns of Senegal and Mauritania are legitimate, considering how much ground JNIM has gained in western Mali. The group appears to be surrounding both countries and could very well have operatives infiltrating their territory.”

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He added, “Mauritania and Senegal have competent security and military forces that can respond to threats. However, JNIM has gained combat experience and excels at launching surprise attacks, as seen with the Beninese army. Dakar and Nouakchott must deploy military reinforcements along the Malian border.”

Diallo stressed that JNIM, under the leadership of Iyad Ag Ghaly, will likely seek to showcase its military strength—particularly after taking control of Kayes, a region bordering Guinea, Senegal, and Mauritania.

Meanwhile, both French and African experts have reported unprecedented movements by JNIM in western Mali, accompanied by a sharp rise in attacks and strategic breakthroughs.

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A recent field study published by Senegal’s Timbuktu Institute found that the Kayes region has become a troubling hub of militant activity, potentially opening the door to violence spilling into Mauritania and Senegal.

It is worth noting that the border regions between Mali and the rest of West Africa have recently witnessed some of the deadliest attacks carried out by Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin.

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