“Military Indicators”: Israel Prepares the Ground for a Ceasefire in Lebanon

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Tel Aviv has initiated new military measures to increase the likelihood of success for the U.S.-proposed ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.

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The measures began on the ground with the removal of military roadblocks by the Israeli army in the border area with Lebanon on Sunday, according to Israeli army radio, which asked, “Are we heading towards the return of northern residents to their homes?”

At the onset of the war, the Israeli army requested tens of thousands of residents from towns near the Lebanese border to evacuate their homes and stay in hotels across Israel at the state’s expense. Approximately 70,000 Israelis are still displaced.

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Troop Withdrawal

The Israeli army radio reported plans to withdraw all soldiers from northern settlements and return them to bases and posts. Only civilian security forces, reservists, and local security officials will remain, along with available security systems.

The Lebanese government is reviewing the U.S. ceasefire proposal, which includes 12 key points. These include mutual acknowledgment by Israel and Lebanon of the importance of U.N. Resolution 1701, designating the Lebanese army as the sole armed force south of Lebanon, and Lebanese government oversight over arms sales or production to prevent the rearmament of unofficial armed groups.

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The proposal also calls for the dismantling of any non-compliant armed infrastructure by the Lebanese government. The U.S. and another nation would oversee the Israeli withdrawal. Within 60 days of signing the agreement, Lebanon would be required to disarm unofficial militias in the south.

Changes on the Ground

According to Israeli radio, after removing tanks, the army has also dismantled all military roadblocks along border routes, including roads previously closed due to anti-tank missile threats.

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Israeli military sources stated, “The reality in the north has changed. There are no longer areas restricted to driving, and roads are open to civilian traffic.”

Despite this, residents remain hesitant to return due to ongoing rocket fire from Lebanon, with over 100 rockets hitting northern Israel daily.

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Positive Indicators

In another sign of progress, Israel’s public broadcasting authority reported that Prime Minister Netanyahu is holding security consultations tonight amid advancements in negotiations for a Lebanese agreement.

The U.S. has submitted a ceasefire proposal to Israel and Lebanon. While Israel appears inclined to accept it, both the U.S. and Israel await Lebanon’s response.

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Intensified Strikes

Despite these positive signs, the Israeli army continues to expand its strikes, including in southern Beirut. Several areas, including villages in southern Lebanon, have been targeted by airstrikes.

Analysis on Gaza

Amos Harel, a military analyst for Haaretz, believes Netanyahu is considering a ceasefire in Lebanon, but there is no end in sight for the conflict in Gaza. He notes that while U.S.-encouraged negotiations progress, the Hezbollah group remains unwilling to limit its military capabilities along the border.

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