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As temperatures drop below zero, Ukraine faces grim challenges. Will the third winter of war break the chill of this difficult scenario?

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The British newspaper Financial Times revealed in a report that Russia and Ukraine are discussing a ceasefire on strikes against energy infrastructure in their respective countries.

The newspaper quoted senior Ukrainian officials stating that Kiev “has been seeking to resume negotiations that came close to an agreement in August before going off track due to the ongoing incursion in the Kursk region.”

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A diplomat familiar with the negotiations said: “There are now talks about energy facilities.”

An agreement, if it materializes, would represent, according to the newspaper, the largest de-escalation in the conflict since the outbreak of war in February 2022.

Earlier this month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky noted that an agreement to protect energy facilities could indicate Russia’s willingness to engage in broader peace talks.

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According to a senior Ukrainian official, Moscow and Kiev have already reduced the pace of attacks on each other’s energy infrastructure in recent weeks, as part of the understanding reached by their intelligence agencies.

Ukraine now heavily relies on its nuclear facilities and energy imports from European partners.

Will Putin Agree?

However, Financial Times cited a former high-ranking Kremlin official familiar with the discussions, who excluded the possibility of President Vladimir Putin agreeing to a deal until Ukrainian forces are expelled from the Kursk region, where they still control about 600 square kilometers of territory.

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The same official, whose name was not disclosed by the newspaper, stated: “As long as the Ukrainians occupy land in Kursk, Putin will strike Zelensky‘s energy infrastructure.”

Nonetheless, Ukraine plans to continue targeting objectives, including oil refineries, to pressure Russia to engage in negotiations, according to the senior Ukrainian official.

The latter added that apart from Kiev’s long-range offensive capabilities, which have allowed it to strike energy targets and military facilities within Russia, “we do not have much leverage to force the Russians to negotiate.”

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The invasion of Kursk on August 6 led to Moscow’s withdrawal from a previous round of negotiations.

Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesperson, declined to comment on these discussions. Zelensky‘s office did not immediately respond to the newspaper’s requests for comment.

Previous Attempts

Previously, other attempts to mediate a deal had failed. Four Ukrainian officials told Financial Times that Kiev and Moscow had reached an “implicit agreement” last fall not to strike each other’s energy facilities.

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As a result, Russia refrained that winter from carrying out the kind of large-scale attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure that it had executed in 2022-2023, according to Ukrainian officials and a source in Washington familiar with the situation.

The sources stated that this agreement was supposed to pave the way for an official deal.

However, Kiev resumed drone attacks on Russian oil facilities in February and March of this year, seeking to increase pressure on Moscow after its failed counteroffensive in 2023.

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Despite warnings from the White House to cease strikes, Kiev continued to apply pressure, with Moscow considering that the implicit agreement had been violated, according to sources familiar with the situation.

Russia then escalated its response, launching a barrage of long-range missiles targeting power stations across Ukraine, including the Trébilska thermal power plant located 40 kilometers from Kiev, which was completely destroyed.

As part of the Ukrainian campaign, at least 9 of Russia’s 32 major refineries have been bombed since the beginning of 2024.

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Serguei Vakoulinco from the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center stated that at the height of the attacks in May, 17% of Russia’s refining capacity was affected, but most of it has since been repaired.

Russia’s response to Kiev’s attacks plunged much of Ukraine into temporary darkness and reduced power generation capacity by 9 gigawatts – half of what Ukraine needed last year to get through the winter. Kiev has proven unable to fully restore that capacity.

Last week, Putin stated that Russia is only ready to consider “all divergences in peace agreements based on facts on the ground.”

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He had previously demanded that Ukraine relinquish full control of four regions along the front line that Moscow only partially controls, as well as a complete withdrawal of Western sanctions.

Ukraine views these conditions as unacceptable for any potential peace negotiations.

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