Russia’s slowdown makes China Iran’s most important supplier of weapons
Tehran is preparing for a new phase of confrontation with Israel and is seeking rapid and effective sources of armament to address the gaps exposed during a twelve-day war with the Israeli state.
In a notable shift in Iran’s military supply landscape, China has emerged as Tehran’s most significant partner in arms procurement, according to an extensive analysis published by Insider. The assessment relies on several indicators showing the decline of Russia’s traditional role in supporting Iranian military capabilities, contrasted with China’s expanding presence at a time of heightened regional tensions.
Following the twelve-day Israeli attacks that caused severe damage to Iran’s military and defense infrastructure, the magazine reports that Tehran is preparing for a new stage of confrontation and is searching for fast and efficient sources of weaponry to address the vulnerabilities exposed during the conflict. It notes that Iran appears to be racing against time to rebuild its air defenses and renew its fleet of fighter jets, but its domestic efforts have not achieved meaningful progress, leaving it at least two generations behind American and Israeli capabilities.
Amid these efforts, a telling example of the challenges facing Iran’s military industry recently surfaced: state media announced the return to service of the destroyer Sahand, which had sunk last year during maintenance operations. Its reinstatement, alongside the floating base Kurdistan, was presented as proof of Iran’s resilience, yet it also reflects the depth of the technical problems the country faces.
Regarding relations with Moscow, the magazine notes a significant slowdown in the execution of promised military deals, particularly the delivery of Su-35 fighter jets and modern air defense systems. According to its sources, Russia informed Tehran that its military commitments had been affected by recent Israeli attacks, resulting in repeated delivery delays. Although the Kremlin recently announced a new schedule and provided a limited number of MiG-29 jets as an initial compensation, the report explains that these partial deliveries, received since last October, have not produced any meaningful change in the balance of power between Iran and Israel.
The report also highlights Iran’s efforts to acquire the S-400 system, capable of targeting F-35 aircraft, but negotiations for additional batteries are progressing slowly, frustrating the Iranian side. Although reports suggest that a first battery has arrived in Isfahan, a broader agreement on additional units remains incomplete.
Conversely, China appears as a more dynamic and flexible actor. Over the past two years, according to the magazine, Beijing has become one of Tehran’s leading suppliers of military technology, helping it modernize its air defense systems and enhance its air force capabilities. The author argues that China now surpasses Russia in enthusiasm and willingness to supply Tehran with military technologies.
Sources within the Revolutionary Guard quoted in the report state that Tehran signed an agreement with Beijing last summer to purchase the advanced version of the HQ-9 system. China reportedly delivered half of the agreed quantity in under two months, a speed far exceeding that of Russia. Chinese assistance has also included sending teams of technicians and experts to Iran to install the systems and train local personnel, a step that could pave the way for a potential sale of J-10C fighter jets.
These details align with information earlier published by The National Interest, reporting that Tehran dispatched a military delegation to China after the destruction of its defense systems during the last conflict to negotiate the purchase of J-10C jets and additional defense systems.
Nonetheless, Insider concludes that Iran’s possession of a limited number of S-400 and HQ-9 systems would not enable it to repel large-scale air attacks carried out by Israel, especially with potential U.S. involvement. Likewise, any future arrival of Russian or Chinese fighter jets would not immediately shift the balance, as pilot training would require considerable time.
Therefore, the author argues that Iran’s most reliable weapon in any future confrontation will remain its domestic ballistic missile program, which Iran views as the central pillar of its deterrence capability in the absence of a fully advanced and ready air defense shield.
