Southern Yemen Between Riyadh’s Calculations and the Realities on the Ground: A Reading of Political and Security Developments
Southern Yemen today is moving under delicate balances that reflect the intersection of local dynamics with regional agendas, foremost among them Saudi calculations, which have recently reordered their priorities. After years of open confrontation, Riyadh has adopted a more cautious approach, aiming to safeguard its strategic interests in the south without becoming embroiled again in prolonged military or political exhaustion.
Key developments include intensified Saudi contacts with various Yemeni parties, in an effort to revive a comprehensive political track. However, the south remains a core issue in any settlement due to the uniqueness of its political question and the ambitions of its influential actors. Riyadh faces a complex equation: on one hand, it needs a strong southern partner capable of ensuring the stability of provinces along vital maritime corridors; on the other, it seeks to maintain a balance within the Presidential Leadership Council to prevent the disintegration of legitimacy or the outbreak of new internal conflicts.
On the security level, some southern provinces have witnessed initiatives to reorganize local forces and integrate certain formations into more formal structures, aiming to reduce security duplication. While these steps appear technical, they carry deep political implications, reflecting a desire to regulate armed power centers and limit the risk of uncontrolled escalation. Riyadh supports this approach as a pathway to long-term stability but is also aware that any restructuring affecting sensitive balances could trigger unpredictable reactions.
Economically, these developments coincided with Saudi efforts to support the currency and finance select service projects amid deteriorating living conditions in the south. This economic dimension has become a key component of the influence strategy, as improved services and alleviated social pressures help calm public sentiment and give the Saudi presence a less confrontational aspect. Nevertheless, the scale of economic challenges far exceeds what limited interventions can provide, making the effectiveness of these measures dependent on their continuity and expansion.
Regionally, the southern file intersects with broader transformations in the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa, where maritime corridors are growing in strategic importance amid rising international tensions. Riyadh views the south as part of a broader maritime security system, considering its stability essential to protecting trade routes and energy security. This understanding reinforces its commitment to maintain an influential role in the south, even if the tools or pace of this role change.
Yet the southern reality imposes its own constraints. The southern question is not merely a security or administrative issue but a deeply rooted political matter, and any approach that ignores this dimension risks counterproductive outcomes. Riyadh, in shaping its new role, must treat the south as a partner in crafting solutions, not merely as a terrain for settling scores or adjusting regional balances.
In conclusion, recent developments in southern Yemen reflect a shift in Saudi intervention from a phase of open confrontation to one of influence management using more diversified tools. The success of this approach, however, depends on the ability to reconcile regional security requirements, the sensitivities of the southern landscape, and the challenges of a strained economy. Amid these interlinked factors, the south remains a central pivot in Riyadh’s calculations and a mirror reflecting its capacity to adapt to a rapidly changing regional context.
