Policy

“Surprise” in Israeli Attack on Iran: Advance Warning of Date and Targets?


Following Israel’s announcement of the end of its four-hour attack on Iran, which targeted military sites in six cities, reports revealed a “surprise.”

According to three informed sources reported by Axios, Israel sent a message to Iran before its retaliatory airstrikes, warning Iranians not to respond. Although the sources did not specify the intermediary, some reports indicated that Russia had conveyed the message to Iran.

The sources noted that the Israeli message was an attempt to limit the ongoing exchange of attacks between Israel and Iran and to prevent a broader escalation.

According to American and Israeli officials, three waves of airstrikes occurred on Saturday morning, local time. The first wave focused on Iran’s air defense systems, while the second and third waves targeted missile bases, drones, and weapons production sites.

Iran stated it had repelled the Israeli attack, claiming that only “limited damage” was inflicted on military targets across the country.

Israeli officials indicated that the attack was a response to Iran’s significant ballistic missile strike on October 1.

Behind the Scenes

According to Axios sources, the Israeli message was transmitted to Iranians through multiple channels.

One source told the American site: “The Israelis informed the Iranians in advance about what they would generally target and what they would not.”

Two other sources claimed that Israel warned Iran against responding to the attack, asserting that if Iran retaliated, Israel would carry out a more significant attack, particularly if Israeli civilians were killed or injured.

The office of the Israeli Prime Minister did not respond to requests for comment. Iran stated it did not seek a full-scale war with Israel but would retaliate if attacked.

Israeli army spokesperson Admiral Daniel Hagari said in a briefing on Saturday that if Iran escalated in response to the Israeli strikes, Israel would be forced to respond.

American Warning

A U.S. official stated that the United States was not involved in the Israeli operation, but if Iran retaliated, the U.S. was prepared to defend Israel against any attack.

He added, “This should mark the end of direct military exchanges between Israel and Iran. If Iran attacks Israel again, there will be consequences. We have conveyed this to Iran, directly and indirectly.”

Weapons Used by Israel in the Attack on Iran

According to a source cited by the American outlet, “one of the channels for conveying messages to Iran before the Israeli strike was Dutch Foreign Minister Kasper Veldkamp.”

A few hours before the Israeli attack, Veldkamp stated on his account on the platform X (formerly Twitter): “I spoke with the Iranian Foreign Minister regarding rising tensions in the region. I urged restraint. All parties must work to prevent further escalation.”

Will Iran Respond?

American officials expect Iran to respond to the Israeli attack in the coming days, but in a limited way, enabling Israel to break the cycle of “eye for an eye” retaliation.

National Security Council spokesperson Sean Savitt stated: “Our goal is to accelerate diplomacy and de-escalate tensions in the Middle East. We urge Iran to halt its attacks on Israel so that this cycle of fighting ends without further escalation.”

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