Three contentious issues threaten a Ukraine settlement… traps cloud the optimism
An optimistic tone has surrounded recent US statements about efforts to resolve the war in Ukraine, ongoing since February 2022, but key obstacles remain.
Despite “some remaining differences,” US President Donald Trump praised the “tremendous progress” made by his team toward ending the conflict.
Earlier, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio referred to “very positive” talks in Geneva, stating that “the remaining issues are not impossible to solve.”
After meeting with Russian officials, a US military envoy announced that “the Ukrainians have agreed to the peace deal,” though “some small details still need to be resolved,” according to US media.
This optimistic tone reflects the approach taken by the Trump administration during the delicate negotiations currently underway to shape a joint US–Ukrainian–European position on how to end the war through a negotiated settlement, according to CNN.
However, CNN quoted a senior Ukrainian source familiar with the talks as saying that significant gaps remain between what the Trump administration is requesting from Ukraine and what Kyiv is prepared to accept.
The source confirmed that a “consensus” has been reached on most of the 28 points in the US peace plan, but noted that a few minor disagreements persist, in addition to three critical issues where differences are so deep that they could determine the success or failure of the negotiations.
Three issues
The first disputed point concerns whether Ukraine would agree to relinquish core strategic territories in the Donbas region, including a “fortified belt” of heavily defended towns and cities considered essential to Ukraine’s security.
Previous US proposals suggested that Ukraine transfer these territories to become a demilitarized zone administered by Russia.
The Ukrainian source said “meaningful progress” has been made on this issue, but no decision has yet been reached regarding the substance or wording of the draft proposals.
He added: “It would be a serious mistake to suggest we now have a version acceptable to Ukraine.”
The second issue relates to the controversial US proposal to cap the size of the Ukrainian army at 600,000 troops. The source noted that a higher number has since been discussed, but Kyiv still seeks further adjustments before agreeing to such a restriction.
The third and final point concerns Ukraine’s renunciation of its ambition to join NATO. The source stressed that this demand remains unacceptable.
He stated that such a concession would set “a dangerous precedent” and would effectively grant Russia veto power over the Western military alliance.
These three points are among the most frequently cited reasons Moscow gives for the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, and Russia insists on resolving them on its terms as a prerequisite for ending the conflict, CNN reports.
At the same time, these issues represent longstanding and highly sensitive red lines for Ukraine.
