Policy

Ukraine and Lebanon: Two Separate Wars That Changed Syria’s Fate


In every crisis lies an opportunity, and within every opportunity, a crisis. This is what recent events in Syria have unveiled.

Nick Paton Walsh, international affairs correspondent for CNN, believes that the stunning advance of the Syrian armed opposition, culminating in the capture of Damascus within a week, is an unintended consequence of two other wars — one near and the other far. He notes that this development leaves the United States’ key allies facing a new and unknown power that now controls large, possibly the majority, portions of their strategic neighbor, given the rapid pace of events.

Walsh attributes the Syrian regime’s swift collapse to what unfolded in southern Beirut and Donetsk, Ukraine. The two-month-long war waged by Israel against Hezbollah likely had little concern for Assad’s fate but might have inadvertently contributed to his downfall.

Similarly, the Russian war in Ukraine, launched 34 months ago, did not account for the limited aircraft and troops that Russia could leave available to support its allies in the Middle East. This war rendered Russia “unable” to assist Assad, a point emphasized yesterday, Saturday, by President-elect Donald Trump.

CNN also touched on Turkey’s role, pointing out that Ankara was forced to play a long-term game regarding Syria. Since 2012, Turkey has hosted more than 3 million refugees while witnessing Kurdish forces — known as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), trained, equipped, and supported by the U.S. in their fight against ISIS — establish a foothold along its border.

Future Scenarios

Russia is expected to focus on its war in Ukraine, while Iran may prepare for a potential escalation under the incoming U.S. President Donald Trump.

“This radical shift might be what Syria needs to achieve stability, but it is also a reminder of how difficult it is to establish peace after years of suffering and destruction,” concludes CNN.

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