Wall Street Journal: Trump to Renew “Maximum Pressure” Campaign against Iran

As many question the likelihood of major shifts in U.S. foreign policy following Republican Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election, most agree he will adopt a tougher stance on key issues, with Iran being at the forefront.

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Sources close to Trump’s aides told the Wall Street Journal that the new administration intends to quickly implement a “maximum pressure” strategy aimed at choking off Iran’s oil exports as part of an aggressive plan to undermine Tehran’s support for its proxies in the Middle East and its nuclear program. These actions will include legal proceedings against ports and traders handling Iranian oil.

During his first term, Trump took a hard line on Iran, announcing the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, and implementing a “maximum pressure” strategy. This aimed to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions, halt its funding and training of groups the U.S. deems terrorist, and improve its human rights record.

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However, as Trump takes office on January 20, his stance on Iran may be further influenced by intelligence indicating that Iranian agents allegedly tried to assassinate him and former top national security aides after they left office. According to former officials in the Trump administration, Iran seeks revenge for a 2020 U.S. drone strike that killed Qassem Soleimani, head of Iran’s covert paramilitary operations.

Sources familiar with Trump’s plans and connected to his senior advisors report that the new team will act swiftly to clamp down on Iranian oil exports, including taking legal action against foreign ports and traders dealing in Iranian oil. This would recreate the strategy used by the former president in his first term, with mixed results.

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A former White House official told the newspaper, “I think we’ll see sanctions return, along with additional diplomatic and financial moves to isolate Iran.” He added, “The perception is that Iran is currently in a position of weakness, and this is an opportunity to exploit that.”

Iran’s oil industry accounts for 79 percent of its total export revenues, and together with related sectors, constitutes over 85 percent of exports.

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Various actors have attempted to restrict Tehran’s oil export capabilities, forcing it to lower prices and significantly reduce its revenue.

Since the Biden administration took office in 2021, the U.S. has refrained from imposing additional sanctions that would restrict Iran’s ability to sell oil to China through a series of maritime shipments. However, Tehran now fears that the U.S. may take steps to shut down this trade route entirely.

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An Iranian diplomat told the newspaper that Tehran will work to counter U.S. sanctions by strengthening its ties with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, an Asian bloc led by China and Russia, which includes major countries like India, Pakistan, and Kazakhstan. The diplomat also noted that Tehran may respond by accelerating its nuclear program.