Who Will Represent Europe before Putin? Disputes over Mandates and Guarantees Hinder a Ukraine Settlement
French and European diplomatic sources said that efforts to secure a direct European role in settling the Russia-Ukraine war have entered a phase of disagreement over who should negotiate with Moscow and the extent of the military commitments that could form part of a prospective settlement.
According to a diplomat at France’s Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs, Paris is seeking to turn the Dublin security declaration, endorsed by 43 countries, into an operational document defining the European negotiator’s mandate and arrangements concerning military deployments, sanctions and Ukrainian territory. Germany, however, has expressed clear reservations.
These efforts coincide with US envoy Steve Witkoff’s tenth meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin following the Abu Dhabi talks, and the subsequent meeting between Witkoff, Jared Kushner and Volodymyr Zelensky in Dublin. Disagreements persist over the Donbas and security guarantees.
Witkoff’s tenth visit to Russia and tenth meeting with Putin represented more than another stage in communications between Washington and Moscow. They reflected the importance the Trump administration has attached to direct diplomacy with the Kremlin as a means of ending the war in Ukraine.
Throughout these meetings, Witkoff has sought to establish negotiating channels with Putin to advance the most difficult issues, ranging from Ukrainian territory and security guarantees to prisoner exchanges and post-war arrangements.
A Unified Seat at the Negotiating Table
European efforts to secure a direct role in a settlement of the Russia-Ukraine war have given rise to disagreements over who should negotiate with Moscow and the military commitments national governments can offer.
A security declaration adopted at the Dublin summit affirmed Europeans’ right to help determine the future of the continent’s security. France is seeking greater autonomy in strategic decision-making, while Germany is wary of creating negotiating channels that could affect defence relations with Washington and NATO.
Endorsed by 43 countries on Thursday, the declaration reaffirmed state sovereignty, the inviolability of borders and Ukraine’s right to choose its alliances. It also called for guarantees to prevent renewed war, alongside US-Russian-Ukrainian contacts concerning a settlement.
The French diplomat said Paris envisages a small political group comprising France, Germany, Britain and Poland, with a representative of the European institutions also participating. The group would review US proposals before they are discussed with Moscow and present a common position on issues affecting continental security.
Paris Insists on a European Mandate
France is seeking to bring three issues within the proposed group’s remit: the future of military deployments in Eastern Europe, guarantees for Ukraine and the conditions for any easing of sanctions against Russia.
Paris believes that a potential agreement concerning Ukrainian territory would directly affect European defence arrangements, particularly if it included restrictions on troop deployments or the types of weapons Kyiv could receive.
The French Foreign Ministry is advocating a mechanism allowing countries participating in security guarantees to make independent commitments. It also wants Britain to have a direct role in shaping those guarantees, given its military capabilities and participation in the group of leading European countries engaged on Ukraine.
European affairs expert Enrique Serbeto said the Dublin declaration gives national governments a shared political foundation. The challenge, however, lies in translating principles into decisions requiring military resources and separate national approvals.
He believes France is trying to strengthen Europe’s ability to engage Washington from a more independent position, drawing on its nuclear capabilities and permanent seat on the UN Security Council. Germany’s financial and industrial contribution, however, remains essential to any long-term defence arrangements.
Berlin Fears Parallel Negotiating Tracks
A diplomat at Germany’s Federal Foreign Office familiar with European coordination on the Ukraine negotiations said that Berlin is reluctant to authorise a small group to negotiate on behalf of the continent before its relationship with the European Council and NATO has been established.
The diplomat said Germany’s objection centres on the possibility that commitments made by an independent European representative could conflict with existing defence obligations, particularly those concerning German forces deployed in Lithuania and US military capabilities stationed in Europe.
Berlin favours assigning political coordination to European Council President António Costa while keeping military consultations within NATO frameworks. It also wants Poland and the Baltic states involved whenever arrangements affecting the eastern flank are discussed.
Germany’s reservations also extend to lifting sanctions. Berlin believes such decisions should remain with the relevant European institutions and require member-state approval under established legal procedures.
The disagreements coincided with the arrival in Dublin of US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Thursday evening following a round of discussions concerning the war.
Guarantees Will Determine the Initiative’s Future
Serbeto said the core Franco-German disagreement concerns the distribution of responsibilities within Europe’s security system. Paris prioritises strategic freedom of action, while Berlin relies more heavily on NATO military integration.
In his view, agreeing on a common mandate will require clarity on which issues the European representative may negotiate, which decisions need government approval and how guarantees granted to Kyiv would be implemented.
According to the German diplomat, the meeting of EU leaders in Dublin offers an opportunity to narrow differences before the next round of negotiations expected in Abu Dhabi, particularly following the announcement that European representatives could participate directly.
Paris and Berlin’s ability to resolve their differences over the mandate and guarantees will remain decisive in turning the Dublin declaration from a set of shared political principles into arrangements that give Europe an effective role in shaping its own security future.
