Why is the risk of drought increasing in winter?
Most people associate drought with summer heat, cracked earth and disappearing rivers. For decades, the common perception has been simple: drought belongs to the dry, hot season.
However, scientists and environmental specialists are warning about a less obvious trend: the growing risk of drought during winter.
Understanding this phenomenon means looking at how climate change, precipitation patterns, ecosystems and human activity interact.
Milder winters do not always mean more water
In many regions, winters are becoming warmer. Warmer conditions, however, do not automatically bring more rain. Instead, they can disrupt atmospheric circulation and shift storm tracks.
At the same time, warmer winters mean less snow. Snow is crucial because it acts as a natural reservoir. It accumulates during winter and melts slowly in spring, feeding rivers, reservoirs and groundwater.
When snowfall declines, water flows away more quickly instead of being stored in the landscape. By the time spring arrives, water reserves may already be insufficient.
Heavier rain, but less frequent
Another key trend is irregular precipitation. Winter storms may be stronger, but they occur less often.
Intense rainfall overwhelms the soil, causing runoff rather than infiltration. Water drains rapidly toward rivers and seas, sometimes causing floods — yet leaving soils dry only weeks later.
This is why a stormy winter can still end with drought conditions.
Drier soils and stressed ecosystems
Warmer winters accelerate evaporation and stimulate earlier plant growth. Vegetation begins using water before aquifers and reservoirs are fully replenished.
Over time, soils lose structure and organic matter. They retain less moisture and become more vulnerable to erosion, reinforcing the drought cycle.
Human pressure intensifies the problem
Growing cities, expanding agriculture and rising consumption place constant pressure on water resources. When winter recharge is insufficient, groundwater continues to be pumped, gradually depleting reserves.
Aging infrastructure, leaks and poor planning worsen the situation.
Economic, ecological and social impacts
Winter drought carries serious consequences:
- lower agricultural productivity
- greater forest vulnerability
- earlier and more frequent wildfire risk
- longer water-use restrictions
- stress on hydropower production
Aquatic ecosystems also suffer when winter river flows decline.
What can be done?
Several strategies are essential:
- restoring wetlands and natural floodplains
- improving groundwater management
- promoting crops that use less water
- upgrading water networks to reduce losses
- planning water use across entire watersheds
Above all, societies must recognize that drought no longer belongs only to summer. It often begins quietly in winter — when nature is supposed to rebuild its reserves.
Understanding this shift is the first step toward adapting to it.
