Will the 13th ceasefire hold in Sudan? What are the main scenarios?

A series of ceasefires have been declared since fighting broke out on 15 April in Sudan, with the Sudanese army and RSF agreeing to the ceasefire, but they are being breached between the two sides and heavy fighting continues.

Last Saturday, the two sides agreed to abide by the 13th truce agreed in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, in a US-Saudi initiative for a ceasefire in Sudan and a return to the democratic political process.

New Breach of Truce

In the past few hours, after the truce went into effect on Monday, reports of new breaches of the truce, clashes between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), and air raids and explosions in the Sudanese capital Khartoum were heard.

According to media reports following talks in Jeddah, the ceasefire “will remain in force for seven days and could be extended with the consent of both parties”.

Observers in Sudan say people in Khartoum are still hiding in their homes following the ongoing clashes between the two sides, noting that both sides have declared commitment to the truce but have not.

Nearly 1,000 people have been killed in the 38th consecutive day of fighting, more than a million displaced during weeks of intense fighting, and millions more have been left with intermittent access to water, electricity, medicines and even the internet.

Sudanese journalist Mohamed Elias says: Today the truce is in force, there are no violations so far, and there is little information in Omdurman about light clashes between the army and the rapid support forces, but not up to breaking the truce.

Mohamed Elias added: So far the two sides have committed to the truce after the statements of the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who warned the two parties not to prejudice the political process or the agreement in Jeddah and to abide by the terms of the agreement, confirming that the situation now in Khartoum is generally calm.

Elias added that in the most prominent scenarios to come, the situation will witness changes after the entry into force of the Jeddah Agreement, and it is possible to continue negotiations during the coming period, to return to the civil democratic track and to sign a final agreement to form a civil government.