3 Scenarios for Israel’s Response to the Missile in Majdal Shams… and the Decision in the Coming Hours
“Strong and unprecedented response” is an expression that has been repeated many times in Israel in the hours following the incident in Majdal Shams, raising questions about the nature of this response.
On Saturday, a missile allegedly fired from Lebanon fell on a football field in the Arab town of Majdal Shams, in the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights, killing 12 people in an attack that the Israeli army described as “the deadliest against Israeli civilians since last October 7.”
The response could unfold in three scenarios: a strong and unprecedented response, a full-scale war against Lebanon, or postponing the response, whether temporarily or until the end of the war in Gaza.
However, the scenario for the response will be decided by the Israeli security and policy cabinet, “the cabinet,” which will meet Sunday afternoon to determine the most appropriate response.
Nevertheless, the intense military meetings since the incident do not rule out the possibility of a quick military action against Hezbollah, without it being clear if this will include the assassination of Hezbollah military leaders.
Scenario of War and Its Difficulty
Military analyst for the Israeli newspaper “Yedioth Ahronoth,” Yoav Zitun, stated on Saturday evening: “Currently, security consultations are underway under the direction of Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Israeli army chief of staff Hertzi Halevi, in the absence of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who is on an official visit to the United States.”
He added: “Gallant and top officials of the Northern Command have repeatedly sought to escalate attacks against Hezbollah, calling from the beginning of the war to make Lebanon the main theater of operations and not Gaza.”
He explained: “The prime minister is not in Israel, and until the security cabinet meets, it is not legally possible to respond in a way that triggers a war.”
Zitun emphasized that “the Israeli army is struggling to formulate intermediate measures, with any response oscillating between a large-scale military operation against Hezbollah and the current escalation, which has subjected northern communities to ongoing combat since last October 7.”
He added: “Therefore, the current understanding in Israel is that a very severe response—like an attack on Beirut—could lead to an escalation within hours, deteriorating into war and prompting Hezbollah to fire on the center of the country and the Haifa region.”
He added: “At the heart of discussions that will likely extend to the cabinet is the question of whether to also damage the infrastructure of the Lebanese state, which indirectly helps Hezbollah arm and conduct its operations.”
He continued: “So far, Israel has granted exemptions and immunity to Lebanon’s strategic targets, including the Lebanese army with which Hezbollah operates closely, due to the perception that the state government must be preserved for the aftermath of the war.”
However, analyst for the “Yedioth Ahronoth” newspaper, Avi Issacharoff, stated: “The dreadful incident in Majdal Shams brings us closer than ever since October 7 to a full-scale confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel—but Israel must ask what the goal of this war is, whether it can be achieved, and what the exit plan is.”
Issacharoff recalled what has been said in recent months about the impossibility of waging war in Lebanon while the war in Gaza continues and the Israeli army lacks ammunition due to the war in Gaza, in addition to the exhaustion of Israeli soldiers and whether Israel is prepared to bear the high cost of a war with Hezbollah.
He added: “That we must respond harshly, as logic seems to dictate, against various Hezbollah targets—thus risking a full-scale war—or restrain ourselves in light of the situation in Gaza and the ongoing war there. A large-scale attack on Hezbollah and targets in Lebanon may seem necessary to many in Israel, but the cost of total escalation and its consequences must be understood.”
He continued: “It is doubtful that the Israeli army, in its current state, has the capabilities and means necessary for a swift victory in Lebanon, an event that does not even seem imminent in Gaza.”
He concluded: “Triggering a full-scale war in Lebanon will lead us into a difficult war lasting several months and could end with a ceasefire, despite hollow slogans (total victory). The Israeli home front will be exposed to intense and prolonged fire every day and every hour. All this while few resources, human and material, are dedicated to the war in Gaza, which the prime minister refuses to end or even negotiate for the release of hostages in exchange for a ceasefire.”
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Scenario of Strong Response
For his part, analyst for the Israeli news channel 12, Nir Dvori, said: “The response to the difficult incident cannot be compared to any attack carried out by Israel so far against the terrorist organization in Lebanon.”
He explained: “At the same time, there is an understanding that if Israel chooses to go for a strong and wide response, it must consider all implications and means as it could lead to exchanges of blows.”
He added: “Israel must act wisely and correctly and not respond instinctively. We need to broadly examine everything that is happening here. We need the Americans for these actions against Hezbollah, in terms of weapons and also to threaten the Iranians.”
Analyst for the same channel, Ohad Hamo, said: “It is not certain that Hezbollah wants to stoke the situation, despite using very significant fire this afternoon. The terrorist organization wanted to respond to the elimination of its terrorists, but the way it played with fire brought the Israeli response closer.”
He added: “Hezbollah is trying to deter Israel but does not want war.”
Postponing the Response
For his part, military correspondent for the news site “Walla,” Amir Bohbot, mentioned the scenario of strong strikes against Hezbollah.
He said: “The question currently posed to the prime minister, defense minister, and chief of staff is whether to escalate the response and add new targets to the response list: senior Hezbollah figures, terrorist targets outside southern Lebanon with increased operational scope, national infrastructure of Lebanon that serves Hezbollah, sensitive Hezbollah targets that were previously thought to be secret, or worse: strike Hezbollah targets in Beirut, which until now was a geographical area outside the war.”
He added: “Any action from now on could determine the course of the war. If the Israeli army responds according to the same equations so far, it will allow Hezbollah to launch rockets at population centers, and if it escalates, it could transfer the dilemma of continuing the war and its nature to Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, who will decide whether to escalate the response or swallow his pride.”
He estimated that “international legitimacy is on Israel’s side after the death of the children in Majdal Shams.”
He added: “It is highly likely that the prime minister and defense chiefs will decide to postpone the response to focus on negotiations for the release of the hostages.”
Commentator for the Israeli news site “Ynet” described what happened as a “turning point,” stating: “Israel must now demand what is necessary: to stop the war that Lebanon and Hezbollah have started immediately, and the withdrawal of Hezbollah to the Litani.”
In this regard, former head of Israeli military intelligence division, Tamir Hayman, wrote: “In the current situation, after the terrible disaster in Majdal Shams, it would be wrong to act quickly and impulsively.”
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He added in an analysis followed by “Al-Ain News”: “The disaster in Majdal Shams requires a severe Israeli response, different from what has been done so far, but it is important to act wisely.”
Hayman explained: “An impulsive response can lead us to an unwanted war, with doubled efforts, which would not serve Israel’s long-term interests.”
He continued: “The required response must be well-measured, in a broad plan with progressive steps to transfer the decision-making to Hezbollah and push it back while disrupting its supply lines. The disaster in Majdal Shams must translate into an Israeli initiative, but it must be built on solid foundations.”
